Regional Outlook — QLD1 — Tuesday 28 April 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $84.73/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,551 MW. This is consistent with the evening ramp pattern visible across today's price history — prices climbed steadily from near-zero levels in the early hours (multiple intervals at $0/MWh between 10:00–13:00 AEST) through the morning peak, where prices touched $91.62/MWh around 18:00–19:10 AEST before settling into the current range. The 24-hour trajectory shows the characteristic shape of an autumn weekday: deep overnight troughs driven by surplus generation, a sharp morning ramp from around 15:30 AEST, and a sustained $78–$92/MWh band through the business day peak.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is heavily weighted to black coal, which is producing 2,541.95 MW. Hydro contributes 64.36 MW, gas OCGT is at near-zero (0.06 MW), and solar is at 0 MW — as expected at this hour. Total reported generation from these sources is approximately 2,606 MW against a 6,551 MW demand figure, indicating significant output from gas CCGT, wind, and other scheduled and semi-scheduled units not captured in this snapshot. Renewable penetration stands at just 2.47% at this interval, consistent with the pattern across today's data where renewables peaked around 24% during overnight hours (when wind contribution was higher relative to reduced demand) and compressed sharply once the morning coal dispatch ramped up to meet rising load from approximately 15:00 AEST onward.

Carbon intensity is 0.8583 tCO2/MWh — at the upper end of today's range. The intensity tracked between 0.668 and 0.859 tCO2/MWh across the day, with the lowest readings occurring overnight when the renewable share was highest (peaking at ~24% around 09:00–10:00 AEST). The current reading reflects the full coal dispatch profile supporting the evening demand peak. Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours are tightly clustered around $82.50/MWh, with the most recent runs (forecast time 06:01–06:31 AEST) consistently landing at $82.50/MWh — suggesting marginal price easing from the current $84.73/MWh as demand begins its overnight decline. Load window data confirms deeply negative to near-zero prices are expected from approximately 08:30 AEST onward as overnight oversupply conditions return.

On market notices: a QLD1 non-conformance was declared for unit MPP_1 on 27 April (19:10–21:10 AEST, -35 MW, constraint NC-Q_MPP_1), which is now expired. The MT PASA reserve notice published today confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the NEM for the outlook period — Queensland has no active reserve concern. The MSATS eMDM April maintenance release (CHG0108549) is marked as completed and has no ongoing market impact. Traders should note a series of price-review notices relating to intervals on 27 April have been resolved, with prices confirmed unchanged; no outstanding review applies to Queensland intervals at this time.