NEM Overview — Tuesday 28 April 2026

Grid stress sits at 82.6 out of 100 — the most significant headline this morning — driven by a binding NSW1–QLD1 interconnector and elevated demand across the eastern seaboard's evening period (6:30 AEST). NSW leads NEM demand at 7,663 MW at $98.61/MWh, with QLD at 6,551 MW running the cheapest at $84.73/MWh despite the interconnector importing 717 MW from NSW at its import limit. VIC sits at $92.36/MWh on 5,259 MW, SA at $96.13/MWh, and TAS at $97.07/MWh — the three southern regions are tightly clustered within a $5/MWh band. WA is the outlier at $138.09/MWh on 2,350 MW, though that interval is a full trading day stale and should be treated with caution. The NSW–QLD interconnector binding at –717 MW is a key constraint to watch through the morning; any shift in QLD generation — particularly black coal at 2,542 MW with no solar online — will directly affect the spread.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 34.3%, though this masks significant regional variation. SA is the standout at 79.86% renewable with 528 MW of wind and carbon intensity at just 0.10 tCO2/MWh, supplemented by 134 MW of gas CCGT and 234 MW net import from VIC via V-SA. TAS is 100% renewable at this interval — 566 MW hydro, 31 MW wind — with the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) at zero flow. QLD is at 2.47% renewable penetration with black coal supplying the overwhelming share of 2,542 MW and no solar active in the overnight period. NSW renewable penetration is 7.54%, with 5,947 MW of black coal and 433 MW of hydro comprising most of the stack. VIC is at 6.56% renewable — 2,202 MW brown coal, 162 MW wind, 111 MW gas OCGT — with 144 MW flowing north to NSW and 252 MW net flowing west to SA across V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 combined.

Two active market notices warrant attention. AEMO declared a non-conformance on VP6 in NSW1 at 14:40–14:45 AEST for –159 MW under constraint NC-N_VP6, though this was a brief interval event. More substantively, a Forecast LOR1 was declared for SA for the 18:00–20:30 AEST window, with available reserves of 622 MW falling 25 MW short of the 647 MW requirement — though a subsequent cancellation notice at 01:55 AEST confirms that condition has cleared. The MT PASA reserve notice published this morning identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM outlook, consistent with the LOR1 cancellation.

As solar potential reads zero across all regions and heating demand is active — most acutely in TAS at 10.4 degrees heating demand and NSW at 5.1 — this morning's price formation will depend on thermal dispatch rather than renewables ramp. Price stability is scored at 64.7, suggesting moderate volatility risk as demand builds through the business day. Traders should monitor the NSW1–QLD1 constraint