Commodity Demand — NSW1 — Tuesday 28 April 2026

NSW spot price sits at $98.61/MWh with demand at 7,663 MW at 06:30 AEST, and the price trajectory through the morning clearly reflects the day's demand rebuild. The data shows a textbook autumn evening-to-morning demand curve: demand troughed around 5,300–5,400 MW between 12:00–13:00 AEST overnight with prices collapsing to near zero or sub-zero, then climbed steadily through the morning to peak at 9,228 MW at 18:00 AEST when prices held in the $97–$102/MWh range. The current 7,663 MW reading sits on the descending side of that morning peak, with prices tracking tight to the high $90s — consistent with the supply stack's marginal cost band at this demand level.

Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced across today's data. The move from ~5,300 MW to ~9,200 MW drove prices from effectively zero to over $100/MWh, a relationship that tightens sharply above 8,000 MW where individual dispatch intervals touched $116–$124/MWh. The brief $124.54/MWh spike at 06:50 AEST yesterday coincided with demand pushing through 7,884 MW on the evening ramp — illustrating that this portion of the supply stack carries meaningful price risk when demand accelerates. Current demand at 7,663 MW places NSW in a price-sensitive zone where additional load or any supply outage could push prices back above $110/MWh quickly.

Forecast prices for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST intervals are pinned consistently at $97.65–$97.67/MWh across multiple forecast runs, indicating the dispatch model expects demand to remain in the current band without a significant secondary ramp. The MT PASA reserve notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are forecast for NSW, which removes a key tail risk for today. The non-conformance notice for unit VP6 (−159 MW deviation at 00:40–00:45 AEST) has passed without lasting price impact. With overnight load windows pointing to prices of $5–$35/MWh from 08:30 AEST onward as demand softens through the pre-dawn trough, the relevant price exposure today sits squarely in the morning demand rebuild from approximately 15:00 AEST onward — the same ~6,500 MW to 9,000+ MW ramp that drove $85–$120/MWh pricing in this morning's equivalent window.