Carbon Forecast — Tuesday 28 April 2026

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable output — 565.71 MW of hydro and 31.29 MW of wind covering the entire load at 6:30 AM AEST. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.10 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 79.86%, driven by 528.17 MW of wind with gas CCGT (133.23 MW) covering the remainder. Both regions are already in their best carbon window of the day. NSW sits at 0.81 tCO2/MWh with only 7.54% renewables — 5,946.64 MW of black coal dominates the mix, supplemented by 432.60 MW of hydro and a combined 52.59 MW of wind and solar. Queensland is at 0.86 tCO2/MWh with just 2.47% renewables, almost entirely 2,541.95 MW of black coal with minimal hydro (64.36 MW) and negligible gas. Victoria carries the highest intensity on the NEM at 1.11 tCO2/MWh — 2,202 MW of brown coal is the base, with 161.95 MW of wind and 110.57 MW of gas OCGT, and solar is contributing nothing at this pre-dawn hour.

SA's overnight data shows it dipped as low as 0.09 tCO2/MWh during the late evening (around 7:55 PM AEST) with renewables above 79%, and that profile is consistent through the current interval — wind is steady and no uplift in gas dispatch is evident. The lowest-intensity window for SA today was through the 9:30 PM–midnight AEST band last night when wind pushed renewables above 80%; expect a similar pattern tonight if wind holds. For NSW, the data shows intensity tightened to around 0.74 tCO2/MWh between roughly 9:30 AM and 10:20 AM AEST today as solar ramped — that mid-morning solar window (approximately 8:00 AM–11:00 AM AEST) is the clearest opportunity for carbon-sensitive load scheduling in that region. Victoria showed a corresponding improvement in the overnight wind window (around 12:55 AM–4:00 AM AEST, reaching 0.66 tCO2/MWh), but has since tightened sharply as brown coal output holds firm through the morning and wind contribution remains modest.

For the remainder of today, the main green windows by region are: TAS1 — sustained at or near zero all day (hydro-dominated, no change expected); SA1 — evening wind ramp from roughly 5:00 PM AEST onward is already signalled in the data trend, with intensity likely returning below 0.13 tCO2/MWh; NSW1 — intensity is expected to climb through the afternoon and evening as solar drops off and coal output is maintained, making the 8:00–11:00 AM AEST window the day's best for low-carbon scheduling; VIC1 — no material green window is evident in today's trajectory given the brown coal base and low wind penetration through daylight and evening hours, with intensity holding above 1.10 tCO2/MWh. QLD1's renewable penetration remains structurally low at under 3% across all intervals since mid-morning, and no