Regional Outlook — VIC1

The spot price in Victoria sits at $92.66/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,240 MW and rising. That current price is consistent with the evening ramp pattern observed across today's trading — prices climbed sharply through the morning peak, touching $138.40/MWh at 18:00 AEST, before moderating through the afternoon and now lifting again as demand builds into the evening. The 24-hour profile shows a clear trough in the early hours (sub-$15/MWh between 09:00–13:00 AEST) and elevated pricing on either side of that window, broadly tracking typical autumn weekday load shapes.

The generation mix at the most recent interval (05:50 AEST) is dominated by brown coal at 2,196 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 137.52 MW and wind at 339.58 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the pre-dawn timestamp and today's 96% cloud cover. Hydro is effectively offline at 0.32 MW. Renewable penetration stands at 12.71% — up from a low of around 3.4% during the morning peak when wind was lighter — with the improvement driven by increased wind output across the afternoon and evening. Grid-level carbon intensity is 1.04 tCO2/MWh, having improved from a daytime high of approximately 1.14 tCO2/MWh as renewable share lifted through the second half of the trading day.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target cluster in the $88–$95/MWh range across the most recent runs, suggesting the spot price is likely to hold in that band as demand continues to build toward the evening peak. The 07:30 AEST target shows similar forecasts around $82–$100/MWh, indicating some uncertainty in the dispatch stack but no signals of an extreme price event at this stage. Load window data points to a significant price trough expected from approximately 08:30–09:30 AEST (UTC 22:30–23:30), with forecast prices falling to near or below zero — optimal timing for flexible or deferrable loads.

On market notices, AEMO has issued a high volume of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering numerous intervals throughout today's trading day, though several have subsequently been confirmed unchanged. These reviews have been routine in nature with no material price revisions recorded so far. A Forecast LOR1 notice (Market Notice 144006) was issued for the SA region between 18:00–20:30 AEST today, though this has since been cancelled via notice 144007; there is no active reserve notice directly affecting Victoria at this time. Traders should note the outstanding "Prices Subject to Review" notices for several overnight intervals remain unresolved and carry residual settlement risk for positions covering those periods.