Regional Outlook — TAS1
The spot price sits at $88.26/MWh against a total demand of 1,089.6 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices ranged from a low of $70.22/MWh in the early afternoon to a peak of $109.05/MWh during the morning peak at 17:00 AEST, with the dominant settled band clustering tightly around $88.22–$88.26/MWh for the majority of intervals. The brief mid-afternoon dip below $80/MWh — including a run at $77.15/MWh from 03:35–04:25 AEST — suggests some softness in Basslink flows or dispatch pricing during those intervals, though prices have since stabilised back to the $88.26/MWh level.
The generation mix is entirely renewable at this dispatch interval: hydro is contributing 657.15 MW and wind 63.7 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity registers 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration sits at 100%, a position that has been maintained continuously across all recorded intervals in the past 24 hours. The generation total of approximately 721 MW from local sources against a demand of 1,089.6 MW implies Basslink is carrying net imports of roughly 370 MW from the mainland to cover the shortfall — a normal operating condition for Tasmania during autumn demand conditions with moderate local generation.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) are consistent at $96.28–$96.93/MWh, indicating a step-up from the current $88.26/MWh as morning demand builds. Forecasts have been stable across multiple dispatch runs, with the 21:30 AEST target ranging $96.84–$97.57/MWh across recent predispatch cycles — no material revision in either direction. The load window data also signals that overnight periods from 09:00 AEST (23:00 UTC) onward carry forecast prices in the $72–$75/MWh range, presenting a window of lower-priced consumption before the morning ramp.
On market notices: there are no reserve or constraint notices directly affecting Tasmania. The active SA LOR1 notice (Market Notice 144006, covering 18:00–20:30 AEST today) has since been cancelled per Notice 144007, so no flow implications for Heywood or Basslink are anticipated from that event. A large volume of Manifestly Incorrect Input price review notices are active across numerous intervals from the past 12 hours, though all reviews that have concluded to date have resulted in prices confirmed unchanged. The QLD non-conformance notice for MPP_1 is operationally contained to that region and has no direct bearing on Tasmanian dispatch. Traders positioning for the morning peak should watch the $96–$97/MWh predispatch band — if Basslink import capability tightens or demand comes in above forecast, there is upside risk into the low-to-mid $100s/MWh, consistent with the spikes seen at the same time in recent trading.