Regional Outlook — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $95.35/MWh at 06:30 AEST on 28 April 2026, with total demand at 1,362 MW. This represents a marked easing from the morning peak period, where prices sustained $138–$155/MWh through the 17:00–19:30 AEST window (07:00–09:30 UTC). The 24-hour price profile shows the characteristic autumn shape: a deep overnight trough where prices fell to $0/MWh around 10:00 AEST, a steep morning ramp beginning around 16:30 AEST that pushed prices above $175/MWh, sustained elevated pricing through the business day, then gradual softening into the evening.

The current generation mix is wind-dominant, with wind contributing 547 MW and gas CCGT at 116 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0854 tCO2/MWh, with renewable penetration at 82.57% — both reflecting the strong overnight wind position. This compares to the morning minimum renewable penetration of approximately 27–31% around 17:00–18:00 AEST (07:00–08:00 UTC) when gas-fired plant was carrying the bulk of demand at 1,650–1,720 MW, and carbon intensity peaked above 0.42 tCO2/MWh.

Predispatch forecasts point to a significant step-up in prices through the coming morning peak. Forecasts for the 16:30 AEST half-hour (06:30 UTC) are centred around $138/MWh, with the 17:00 and 17:30 AEST half-hours forecast in the $145–$198/MWh range across multiple dispatch runs. The 18:00–19:00 AEST period (08:00–09:00 UTC) carries forecasts of $180–$222/MWh, with several runs touching $215/MWh. Prices are expected to moderate through mid-morning as solar generation ramps, with forecasts for 22:00–23:30 AEST (12:00–13:30 UTC) dropping sharply to $45–$80/MWh, and overnight periods again forecast at or below $0/MWh — consistent with the surplus wind conditions observed in tonight's trough.

Two reserve notices are active and material for today's outlook. AEMO issued Market Notice 144006 declaring a Forecast Lack of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) condition for SA from 18:00 to 20:30 AEST today, with forecast capacity reserve of 622 MW falling 25 MW short of the 647 MW requirement. Market Notice 144007 cancels a separate LOR1 condition that had been flagged for 01:55 AEST this morning, which has now passed. The active LOR1 for this evening's 18:00–20:30 AEST window aligns directly with the predispatch high-price zone and should be treated as a firm price risk flag for that period. Traders with flexible load or storage positioned to dispatch into that window face a constructive setup; the forecast reserve shortfall of 25 MW is narrow and could widen or close depending on wind output and interconnector flows through the day. Operators should also note that multiple overnight intervals between 22:00 and