NEM Overview

NEM-wide spot prices are sitting in a tight $88–$101/MWh band at 06:30 AEST, with NSW leading at $100.61/MWh on demand of 7,546 MW and Tasmania the cheapest at $88.26/MWh. The $12/MWh NSW-to-Tasmania spread is modest, but the more notable story is the NSW-QLD interconnector: the NSW1-QLD1 link is flowing 527 MW southbound and is binding at its import limit, meaning Queensland is pushing as much power into NSW as the constraint allows. QLD prices at $92.57/MWh reflect that export pressure. Victoria is importing 269 MW from NSW via VIC1-NSW1 and exporting 197 MW to SA via V-SA, effectively acting as a transit node this morning. WA sits outside the NEM at $108.64/MWh on its most recent settlement, the highest price in the dataset.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 37.8% on the gridIQ score, though the regional picture is uneven. SA is the standout at 82% renewable — 523 MW of wind covering the bulk of its 1,362 MW demand, supplemented by 115 MW of gas CCGT and 197 MW of net imports from Victoria. Tasmania is 100% renewable on local generation, running 650 MW of hydro and 72 MW of wind. At the other end of the spectrum, Queensland is at 3.4% renewable penetration this interval with solar output at zero and black coal supplying 2,431 MW of its 6,655 MW demand. NSW is also coal-heavy, with 5,431 MW of black coal and only 182 MW combined from wind and solar. The post-sunset timing explains the absence of solar across all regions; wind generation is the sole variable renewable contributor right now.

The key market notice to flag is the SA Forecast LOR1 declared for 18:00–20:30 AEST today (Notice 144006). AEMO identified a 25 MW shortfall against the 647 MW capacity reserve requirement during that window. A subsequent cancellation notice (144007) was issued at 01:55 AEST, so the LOR1 is formally lifted — but SA's reserve margin remains tight enough that it was flagged in the first place. Traders with SA exposure should watch the evening peak closely; SA local generation capacity is limited and the region relies on V-SA imports. The grid stress score of 78/100 NEM-wide reflects this underlying tightness. A QLD non-conformance on unit MPP_1 (−35 MW, resolved by 21:10 AEST) is no longer active. Multiple price intervals from the overnight period remain under AEMO review for manifestly incorrect inputs, covering intervals from approximately 16:45–00:00 AEST — final settlement values for those periods are not yet confirmed.

For today's outlook, solar output will ramp through the morning across QLD and NSW with low cloud cover (17% and 31% respectively), providing some midday price relief in those regions. Victoria and Tasmania are heavily overcast (96% and 89% cloud cover), so solar contribution there is minimal. Heating demand is present across all regions given overnight temperatures of 10–17°C, and VIC and TAS heating demand indices are the highest in the dataset. The evening peak window of 18:00–20:30 AEST in SA warrants close attention given the earlier