Interconnector Watch

QNI is the sole binding interconnector right now, saturated at its import limit of -527 MW — meaning Queensland is receiving its maximum allowable flow from NSW. That full utilisation is consistent with QLD's price sitting at $92.57/MWh versus NSW at $100.61/MWh; the $8.04/MWh spread would ordinarily drive further arbitrage northward, but the constraint prevents it. The binding QNI limit is directly capping price convergence between the two regions. Notably, QNI's export limit is showing at -11.12 MW, indicating the physical and market conditions are firmly oriented toward Queensland import with virtually no headroom for reversal.

VIC-NSW (QNI's southern counterpart) is flowing 269.58 MW from Victoria to NSW, well within its 981.73 MW export capacity at roughly 27% utilisation — no constraint pressure there. Victoria's $92.66/MWh price sits $7.95/MWh below NSW, so this northward flow is directionally rational and has significant remaining headroom. Heywood is carrying 196.92 MW from Victoria into South Australia against an export limit of 561.23 MW, sitting at around 35% utilisation and non-binding. SA's $95.35/MWh is $2.69/MWh above Victoria, which supports the flow direction, though the spread is modest. Murraylink is adding a minor 18 MW Victoria-to-SA top-up, also well within its 98 MW export cap and non-binding.

Basslink is at zero flow in both directions, sitting idle at the midpoint of its ±125 MW range. With Tasmania at $88.26/MWh — the lowest price on the NEM — there is a $4.40/MWh differential to Victoria that would normally incentivise Tasmanian export, yet the interconnector is carrying nothing. This may reflect hydro scheduling decisions, water storage management, or intra-dispatch constraints not captured in a current market notice (the constraint notice register is clear). The N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) is flowing -33 MW, indicating a modest northward movement from NSW into Queensland, operating at around 30% of its -111.3 MW import capacity and non-binding.

In summary, the only constraint actively shaping market outcomes today is the binding QNI import limit, which is holding the NSW-QLD price spread open at just over $8/MWh. All other interconnectors have substantial spare capacity, losses data is unavailable in the current snapshot, and no constraint market notices are active across the NEM.