Commodity Demand — VIC1

Victoria sits at 5,240 MW and $92.66/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with price rising steadily from $73.54/MWh at 06:00 AEST as demand climbs through the morning ramp. The demand-price relationship is tracking cleanly today: price bottomed out in the $9–$14/MWh range overnight when demand sat at 4,600–4,800 MW, then accelerated sharply once demand crossed the 5,000 MW threshold around 16:00 AEST. The morning trajectory is consistent with that pattern — each 200 MW increment in demand since 06:00 AEST has pushed price up roughly $10–$15/MWh.

Today's demand profile shows the morning peak has already been significant. The intraday record hit 6,370 MW at 17:55 AEST with prices sustaining $125–$138/MWh across the 07:00–08:30 AEST window — the tightest and most expensive period of the day so far. Demand then rolled off through the late morning and early afternoon into the 4,800–5,200 MW range, where prices eased back to the $73–$85/MWh band. Demand is now rebuilding from its 4,234 MW trough at 04:00 AEST, and the current 5,240 MW level with a rising price confirms the evening ramp is underway.

Forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours (target times 21:00–21:30 UTC) are clustered in the $88–$95/MWh range, consistent with demand continuing to build toward a second peak. At 5,240 MW and still rising, price is likely to test the $95–$105/MWh range within the next two to three intervals if the ramp rate holds. The generation mix at 06:25 AEST shows brown coal at 2,193 MW and gas OCGT at 133 MW providing the baseload and peaking response respectively, with wind contributing 419 MW (15.3% renewable share). Solar output is zero at this hour, so today's price relief window that solar typically provides in the middle of the day has passed — from here, the market is entirely dependent on dispatchable capacity to absorb further demand growth.

One market notice is relevant to tonight's price outlook: AEMO issued and then cancelled a Forecast LOR1 for South Australia between 18:00–20:30 AEST. Although cancelled, the original notice flagged a 25 MW reserve shortfall in SA, which places upward pressure on Vic-SA interconnector flows and can tighten Victoria's own available capacity buffer during the evening peak window. Traders positioning through the 08:00–10:30 AEST period should monitor whether SA reserve conditions re-emerge as temperatures move through the evening.