Commodity Demand — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $95.35/MWh at 06:00 AEST with demand at 1,362 MW — up from a trough near 460–590 MW in the early hours and tracking a steady evening ramp. The current price reflects a market transitioning out of the overnight low-price window: demand bottomed around 02:00–04:00 AEST with prices near zero or negative (as low as -$6.33/MWh on some forecast intervals), then climbed sharply through the morning peak. Between 17:30 and 19:30 AEST demand was holding in the 1,282–1,318 MW band with prices in the $70–76/MWh range, demonstrating tight price sensitivity — each 50–100 MW step in demand through the evening ramp has corresponded to a $5–15/MWh price increase, with the current $95.35/MWh reflecting the continuation of that trend as demand pushes back above 1,360 MW.

The morning peak earlier today provides the clearest demand-price relationship in the dataset. Demand climbed from around 945 MW at 16:00 AEST to a daily high of approximately 1,722 MW by 18:30 AEST, with prices tracking from $78/MWh to a sustained band of $135–155/MWh through that period. Prices briefly spiked to $175.97/MWh at 16:20 AEST as demand crossed 1,072 MW, signalling the market's sensitivity at that demand inflection point. The generation mix at the current interval — 547 MW wind, 116 MW gas CCGT, zero solar, and zero gas OCGT — indicates wind is carrying the bulk of supply at this evening level, which is consistent with the relatively moderate $95/MWh price given 1,362 MW of demand.

Forecast pricing indicates a two-phase structure for the remainder of today. The 07:00–08:00 AEST half-hours are priced in the $93–105/MWh range, consistent with demand holding in the current 1,300–1,400 MW band. From 16:00 AEST onward, forecasts escalate sharply into the $138–222/MWh range across the 16:30–19:30 AEST window, pointing to a repeat of the morning peak dynamic as the evening demand ramp unfolds. Forecast intervals at 17:30 and 18:00 AEST carry prices between $173/MWh and $220/MWh, with the 18:30 AEST interval forecast at $215–222/MWh — the highest in today's forward curve.

A key demand-side risk flag for today's evening period comes from AEMO Market Notice 144006, which declared a Forecast LOR1 condition in SA between 18:00 and 20:30 AEST, citing a forecast capacity reserve shortfall of 25 MW (647 MW required, 622 MW available). Although a subsequent notice (144007) cancelled this LOR1 at 01:55 AEST on 28 April, the original forecast window aligns precisely with the highest-priced forecast intervals in today's curve, confirming that the evening demand ramp combined with tight reserve margins is the primary price risk for the 16:00–20:30 AEST period. Sustainability managers and large industrial consumers