Commodity Demand — QLD1

Queensland's spot price sits at $92.57/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,655 MW and climbing. The price trajectory over the past hour tells the story clearly: demand has risen from 6,319 MW at 06:00 AEST to the current level, and price has responded in lockstep — up from $76.74/MWh to $92.57/MWh across that same window, a 24% price lift on a 5% demand increase. That non-linear response reflects the steepening of the supply stack as thermal capacity is progressively committed. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8507 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 3.33%, consistent with the overnight solar absence and black coal carrying 2,498 MW of the visible dispatch.

The day's demand profile has already traced its overnight trough — demand bottomed near 5,015 MW around 09:30 AEST UTC (corresponding to the overnight low in the data) before recovering steadily into the morning peak. Today's trajectory mirrors this structure: the data shows the morning ramp was sharp between 14:30 and 17:00 AEST (04:30–07:00 UTC), with demand surging from around 5,350 MW to 6,950 MW and prices stepping from the high $30s/MWh to the mid-$80s/MWh. The day peak registered 7,838 MW at approximately 18:30 AEST, where prices consistently held in the $78–$88/MWh band. Demand has since eased from that peak and is now re-ascending in the current morning period.

Forecasts for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours point to $84.73/MWh and $82.50/MWh respectively, suggesting the market expects price to soften slightly from the current $92.57/MWh as demand stabilises rather than continuing its sharp ascent. The load window data reinforces this: the cheapest forecast intervals arrive from 08:30 AEST onwards (08:30–10:00 UTC), where prices fall toward zero and briefly negative — consistent with solar generation entering the market and demand retreating from the morning business peak. Demand-side operators and flexible industrial loads should note this window as the primary low-cost opportunity today.

One market notice warrants attention for context: AEMO declared unit MPP_1 non-conforming in QLD1 between 05:10 and 07:10 AEST at −35 MW, contributing to price review notices across multiple intervals in that period. Several intervals from 06:00 AEST onwards remain subject to AEMO review under Clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — traders holding positions in those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until confirmed.