Commodity Demand — NSW1

NSW spot price sits at $100.61/MWh with total demand at 7,546 MW as of 06:30 AEST, the most recent dispatch interval. That price level reflects the sharp evening ramp now underway — demand has climbed more than 500 MW in the past 30 minutes alone, rising from around 7,006 MW at 06:00 AEST to current levels, and spot has responded in kind, accelerating from $82.57/MWh to above $100/MWh across that same window. The price-to-demand relationship through today's data is clear: every sustained move above 7,500 MW has produced prices in the $91–$120/MWh band, while the overnight trough below 4,700 MW saw prices collapse to near or below $0/MWh.

Today's demand profile follows a textbook autumn Tuesday shape. The overnight low touched approximately 4,675 MW around 11:30 AEST, with prices ranging $13–$40/MWh through the pre-dawn period. The morning ramp drove demand to its intraday peak of roughly 8,605 MW at 08:20 AEST, with prices holding in the $85–$120/MWh corridor from 17:00–19:00 AEST. Demand then eased through the middle of the day to around 7,140 MW by 23:25 AEST before beginning the current evening recovery. The generation mix at this interval shows black coal at 5,830 MW and hydro at 622 MW carrying the load, with wind contributing 115 MW and solar 39 MW — renewables are at 11.74% of the mix as solar output has faded entirely with sunset.

Forecast pricing for the next two trading intervals (07:00–07:30 AEST) sits in the $89–$95/MWh range across the most recent PASA runs, consistent with demand continuing to build toward a second evening peak. The load window data signals a sharp price step-down is expected from approximately 08:30 AEST (23:30 UTC), with forward prices forecast well below $10/MWh and into negative territory through the overnight period — mirroring the pattern seen earlier today. Flexible loads should note that window prices between 08:30 and 14:00 AEST tomorrow are predominantly negative to near-zero, representing the deepest off-peak opportunity in today's cycle.

One market notice item is relevant to demand-side planning: AEMO issued a Forecast LOR1 notice for South Australia between 18:00–20:30 AEST today, though this has since been cancelled. No LOR conditions are flagged for NSW, and multiple price-review notices covering intervals from 06:00–07:35 AEST remain active under Clause 3.9.2B MII review — traders should note those confirmed prices may still be subject to revision.