Regional Outlook — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $79.72/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,031 MW as the Monday morning ramp is underway. That current price is consistent with the sustained band seen through today's morning peak, where intervals have tracked between $70–$97/MWh since around 17:00 AEST. The 24-hour profile tells a sharp story: prices ran deeply negative — troughing at -$11.74/MWh around 09:50–10:00 AEST overnight — before climbing steeply from around 16:30 AEST as demand built toward the morning peak, with the transition from sub-zero to $80+/MWh occurring within roughly 90 minutes.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 2,176 MW, with gas (OCGT) contributing 110 MW and wind at 137 MW. Hydro sits at just 0.42 MW and solar is at zero, as expected for this pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration stands at 5.67% — the lowest it has been across the 24-hour period. Carbon intensity is 1.125 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from overnight readings around 0.55–0.59 tCO2/MWh when wind output was proportionally higher against lighter demand. The intensity has been elevated above 1.0 tCO2/MWh since approximately 17:00 AEST, tracking the decline in renewable share as thermal plant covers the rising morning load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are converging firmly around $93–$97/MWh, with the most recent runs issued between 05:30–06:00 AEST pointing to $92.98–$94.95/MWh. Earlier pre-dispatch runs from the 12:00–14:00 AEST window were estimating $82–$84/MWh for that interval, so the trajectory has shifted upward through the day as the evening demand profile firmed. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) carries a wider range in older forecasts — up to $200/MWh in runs from 12:30–15:00 AEST — though more recent dispatches have not been provided for that interval, warranting close monitoring as demand peaks.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from 00:00 through to 05:30 AEST today, with prices for the 05:10 AEST interval now confirmed unchanged. Notices covering 05:15 through 05:30 AEST remain active and subject to review as at the time of this briefing. Traders holding positions in those intervals should note that prices could still be revised. The volume of MII reviews across the overnight negative-price period is notable and may reflect dispatch inputs during the low-demand, surplus-generation window.