Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 26 April 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $106.02/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,108 MW. This is elevated relative to the overnight trough — prices dipped to the mid-$60s/MWh around 09:30–10:00 AEST before climbing steadily through the evening peak, with two intraday spikes to $139–140/MWh (around 16:40–16:45 AEST and again at 01:35–01:50 AEST) indicating tight supply conditions during those intervals. The 24-hour average across the history dataset sits in the high $80s to low $90s/MWh range, making the current $106.02/MWh notably above the day's central tendency.

Generation is entirely hydro and wind at this interval. Hydro is producing 499.61 MW and wind is contributing 50.04 MW, with gas OCGT at 0 MW. Total metered generation sits at approximately 549.65 MW against demand of 1,108 MW, indicating Tasmania is drawing substantially on the Basslink interconnector from Victoria to cover the balance. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% of metered generation — this has been consistent across the entire carbon history dataset covering the past 24-plus hours.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval point to $96.89/MWh, stepping down from current levels. The forecast trajectory through the early morning (07:30–10:30 AEST) holds in the $96–99/MWh band, with some runs showing values as low as $88.22/MWh in the 08:00–09:30 AEST window — broadly consistent with a standard Monday morning pre-business-hours softening before demand builds. The 21:30 UTC interval (the 07:30 AEST half-hour) carries earlier predispatch runs that had forecast $140/MWh or above, but more recent runs have revised that down to the $96–108/MWh range, suggesting the market has found more supply headroom than initially anticipated.

AEMO has issued a high volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews under NER clause 3.9.2B across numerous intervals from 00:00 through 05:30 AEST today. The 05:10 AEST interval has been confirmed with prices unchanged following review; intervals from 05:15 through 05:30 AEST remain under active review. Traders should note these notices do not affect regions specifically — they are NEM-wide procedural reviews — but any price revision to early-morning intervals could alter settlement outcomes across TAS1. No constraint or network limitation notices are active for the region at this time.