Regional Outlook — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $81.14/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,284 MW. That is broadly in line with the sustained band of $70–$105/MWh that has characterised most of the trading day, a significant step down from the elevated $123–$290/MWh spikes seen in the 07:00–09:00 AEST window overnight. The 24-hour price profile shows two distinct phases: a volatile overnight period with repeated excursions above $120/MWh and several negative price intervals between roughly 11:30 AEST and 15:30 AEST, followed by a stable evening settlement in the $67–$92/MWh range through the back half of the day.

Wind is providing 498 MW and gas CCGT 115 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 80 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the post-sunset interval. Total metered generation across these four fuel types is approximately 693 MW, with the remainder of the 1,284 MW demand met via interconnector flows from Victoria. Wind accounts for around 72% of local generation. The grid carbon intensity sits at 0.1564 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 71.86%, both reflecting the strong wind contribution at this evening hour. That is a substantial improvement on the overnight trough between 23:30 AEST and 04:30 AEST, when wind output was lower, gas was carrying more of the load, and intensity climbed as high as 0.462 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration as low as 14.8%.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are clustering tightly around $85–$98/MWh, with the most recent run at $95.16/MWh — a modest step up from the current price consistent with the normal evening demand build on a cool April night (ambient temperature 12.3°C, heating demand index 5.7). The 07:30 AEST interval shows more dispersion in earlier forecast runs, ranging from $91 to $138/MWh, suggesting some residual uncertainty around the transition into the morning ramp. Forecast load windows from 08:30 AEST onward show prices retreating sharply below $50/MWh and into negative territory through the early hours, consistent with wind continuing to produce overnight as demand falls below 1,000 MW.

AEMO has issued a large volume of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from approximately 00:00 to 05:30 AEST today. Of these, three have been confirmed with prices unchanged (04:15, 03:15, and 26 April 23:40 intervals), while notices for intervals spanning 00:00–05:30 AEST remain under active review. Traders should treat prices in those early morning intervals as provisional; any retrospective adjustment will affect settlement but does not alter the current dispatch position. No network constraint or reliability notices are active for SA1 at this time.