Regional Outlook — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $83.55/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand of 6,641 MW — a Monday morning level consistent with the early working-week ramp. Over the past 24 hours, prices traced a pronounced daily cycle: a sustained negative-price period through the overnight hours (roughly 10:30 AEST Sunday to 04:30 AEST Monday, bottoming near -$3.64/MWh) gave way to a sharp morning ramp from around 04:50 AEST, with prices hitting $90.08/MWh at 16:00 AEST and holding in the $77–$92/MWh band through the day. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh range, placing the current price modestly above that average as the morning demand profile builds.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,843 MW, with hydro contributing 519 MW, solar at 80 MW, and wind at 57 MW. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both offline at zero dispatch. Renewable penetration stands at 10.09%, with a carbon intensity of 0.7912 tCO2/MWh — noticeably better than the overnight readings, which peaked near 0.8722 tCO2/MWh around 17:30 AEST Sunday before improving as solar generation built through the day. The daytime intensity low of approximately 0.7299 tCO2/MWh was reached around 18:30 AEST, when solar output was at its peak contribution; intensity has since drifted back upward as solar has wound down for the evening.
Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price step-up this evening. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $97.67/MWh, with multiple forecast runs from 13:00 AEST onward converging on that level. Earlier forecasts issued from around 12:30–13:00 AEST were pulling in the $85–$87/MWh range, but the 14:00–20:00 AEST forecast runs revised sharply upward toward $93–$98/MWh for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (17:00–17:30 UTC), flagging a firm evening peak. Flexible load operators should note this window carries elevated cost exposure relative to the current trading price.
AEMO has issued a high volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 00:20 through 05:30 AEST today. Of the reviewed intervals, the 05:10 AEST interval has been confirmed with prices unchanged. Intervals from 05:15 through 05:30 AEST remain active and subject to review — any price revisions to these intervals would affect settlement for market participants with exposure in that window. Traders should monitor AEMO's notice stream for confirmation outcomes on the remaining open intervals before end-of-day settlement finalisation.