Interconnector Watch

NEM interconnectors are carrying modest cross-regional flows at 06:30 AEST, with one binding constraint shaping the market. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is the standout: flow sits at -317 MW — meaning 317 MW is moving from Queensland into NSW — and the link is binding hard against its import limit of -317.01 MW. With QLD priced at $79.92/MWh and NSW at $83.55/MWh, that $3.63/MWh spread is a direct product of QNI being saturated; additional Queensland generation cannot push further south to arbitrage the differential, so the price gap persists. No market constraint notices are currently active, but the binding condition on QNI is the dominant constraint shaping NEM-wide dispatch right now.

Elsewhere, flows are well within limits. VIC-NSW is carrying 79.74 MW northbound from Victoria into NSW, utilising less than 9% of its 950.99 MW export ceiling — ample headroom. Victoria ($79.72/MWh) and NSW ($83.55/MWh) maintain a spread of $3.83/MWh, yet the unconstrained VIC-NSW link means this differential is primarily driven by dispatch economics rather than transmission limits. Heywood (V-SA) is moving 166.13 MW from Victoria into South Australia against an export limit of 550.51 MW — roughly 30% utilised — consistent with SA's $81.14/MWh price sitting above Victoria's $79.72/MWh and drawing westward flow. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) adds a further 18 MW into SA, both SA-facing interconnectors running in the same direction and neither approaching their limits.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow, with Tasmania priced significantly higher than any mainland region at $106.02/MWh against Victoria's $79.72/MWh. A $26.30/MWh spread with no flow across a link capable of ±125 MW warrants attention — this is likely reflecting a local constraint or operational decision on the Tasmanian side rather than a mainland transmission limit, and traders exposed to TAS1 spot should monitor whether Basslink resumes southbound (TAS-to-VIC export) flow as the morning progresses. DirectLink (N-Q-MNSP1) is carrying a minor -17 MW northbound into Queensland, well within its -88.6 MW import capacity and non-binding.