Commodity Demand — VIC1

Victoria sits at 5,031 MW and $79.72/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well into the morning demand ramp that has been the dominant price driver today. The demand trajectory through this morning tells the full story: load bottomed near 2,800 MW overnight with spot prices consistently negative (reaching as low as -$11.74/MWh around 09:35–09:50 AEST), then climbed sharply from around 13:30 AEST as the morning peak built. By 17:30 AEST demand had surpassed 5,000 MW and prices locked into the $80–$85/MWh band where they have largely remained. The peak so far was 5,773 MW at 18:05 AEST at $82.92/MWh, with prices clustering tightly in the low-to-mid $80s across the 17:00–19:00 AEST window — indicating the market is sitting on a relatively flat portion of the supply stack at current demand levels.

The price sensitivity to demand changes has been pronounced at the margins. The transition from ~3,600 MW to ~5,000 MW between 14:00 and 17:00 AEST drove prices from near zero to the current $80/MWh range — a steep step up as dispatchable capacity was called in. Within the 5,000–5,700 MW band, however, prices are less sensitive to incremental demand changes, oscillating in a tight $73–$97/MWh corridor. The sole excursion above $96/MWh occurred at 21:15 AEST ($96.77/MWh, 5,121 MW) and 23:55 AEST ($96.92/MWh, 4,763 MW), suggesting that even modest demand fluctuations or dispatch availability changes can push prices toward the upper end of that band.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are pricing at $94.95/MWh in the most recent pre-dispatch run, up from the current $79.72/MWh, consistent with demand continuing to build through the 07:00–09:00 AEST morning peak window. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) carries a forecast of $93.35/MWh. These levels imply the market expects demand to push further into capacity that clears above $90/MWh. Notably, AEMO has issued a large number of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews across overnight intervals from 00:00–05:30 AEST — the 05:10 AEST interval has been confirmed unchanged, while intervals from 05:15 through 05:30 AEST remain under active review. These reviews do not affect current dispatch but traders should monitor for any retrospective price adjustments in those early-morning intervals.

The demand outlook for the remainder of today follows a standard Monday autumn profile: the morning peak is the principal price event, with load expected to ease from mid-morning as commercial activity plateaus and rooftop solar (currently zero given 90% cloud cover) provides no material offset today. With wind generation at only 137 MW and solar at zero at this interval, the generation mix is lean on variable renewables, which tightens the effective supply curve and supports prices remaining elevated above $80/MWh through the morning peak. Any demand surprise above 5,800 MW — the approximate