Commodity Demand — TAS1

Tasmania is currently sitting at 1,108 MW with a spot price of $106.02/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well into this morning's demand ramp. The price-demand relationship through today's session has been direct and measurable: demand troughed around 920 MW overnight (circa 12:00–13:00 AEST) where prices held in the $86–88/MWh band, then climbed steadily toward the morning peak of 1,224 MW at 17:55 AEST where prices locked in at $96.22/MWh through an extended block. The most price-sensitive period was the pre-dawn ramp between 16:30 and 17:45 AEST, when demand surged from 1,039 MW to 1,110 MW and spot jumped from $88.18/MWh to a session high of $139.60/MWh across three consecutive intervals — a clear supply-stack response to accelerating morning load. Demand has since eased from that peak and is now climbing again through the evening ramp.

The day's demand trajectory follows a classic autumn double-hump profile. The first peak hit 1,224 MW in the 17:50–18:00 AEST window, prices then softened into the mid-afternoon trough as demand fell below 940 MW, and the evening ramp is now reasserting with demand rising from 954 MW at 04:00 AEST to the current 1,108 MW. The price response to this evening build has been more contained than the morning spike, with spot stepping from $96.26/MWh up to $106.02/MWh as demand crossed above 1,090 MW — suggesting the supply stack is meeting the load incrementally rather than in a sharp step. The generation mix is currently 499.61 MW hydro and 50.04 MW wind with gas OCGT at zero output, consistent with the moderate demand level sitting below the morning peak.

Forward forecasts point to $96.89/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, easing slightly below current spot, which aligns with demand typically plateauing or dipping in the 07:00–09:00 AEST window before the midday trough. The most notable risk period flagged in forward prices is the 07:30 AEST half-hour, where forecasts issued across the 03:00–10:00 AEST window showed a persistent $138.58–$165.69/MWh expectation before progressively revising down to the $106–107/MWh range as actual demand tracked below early forecasts. Traders should note that AEMO has an active cluster of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews covering multiple intervals from 01:00–05:30 AEST today, with the 05:10 interval already confirmed unchanged. Until remaining reviews are resolved, settlement prices for those intervals carry revision risk, though the confirmed interval sets a precedent that corrections are unlikely.