Commodity Demand — SA1

South Australia is trading at $81.14/MWh with demand sitting at 1,283.93 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price level is consistent with where the region has traded across most of the business day — the $74–$110/MWh band has held since roughly 17:00 AEST, reflecting a stable late-evening load profile as demand eases from the intraday peak of 1,546 MW reached around 18:30–18:45 AEST. The current 1,284 MW represents a demand decline of roughly 262 MW from that peak, and prices have tracked lower in step, confirming a tight demand-price relationship through this evening session. The generation mix at this interval is wind at 498 MW, gas CCGT at 114.9 MW, and gas OCGT at 80.2 MW, with solar contributing zero at this hour. Carbon intensity stands at 0.1564 tCO2/MWh with 71.86% renewables, a notable shift from the overnight period where intensity sat above 0.40 tCO2/MWh with wind penetration below 25%.

Today's demand trajectory shows a textbook Monday autumn profile: a shallow overnight trough bottoming near 628 MW around 13:30–13:45 AEST, a sharp morning ramp from around 16:30 AEST pushing demand from ~737 MW to over 1,500 MW by 18:00 AEST, a plateau through the mid-morning business period in the 1,420–1,546 MW range, and a gradual softening through the afternoon into the current 1,280 MW zone. Prices tracked this ramp closely — the morning climb from sub-$40/MWh to the $85–$105/MWh range is directly attributable to that 800 MW demand surge over roughly two hours. Overnight, with demand below 750 MW, the market repeatedly printed negative or near-zero prices as supply capacity exceeded load requirements.

Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging on $85–$98/MWh, with the most recent pre-dawn runs settling around $95/MWh. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) window carries wider dispersion in earlier forecasts — early runs reached $305/MWh — but more recent runs have pulled back to the $83–$100/MWh range, suggesting initial concern about a tight supply situation at that interval has moderated. Demand is expected to ease further through the overnight hours toward a trough in the 600–750 MW range between roughly 13:00–15:30 AEST, at which point forecasts point to prices in the low single digits to negative territory, consistent with what the market delivered at equivalent load levels overnight.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued a substantial volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review notices covering intervals from approximately 00:00 to 05:30 AEST today, with the 05:10 AEST interval subsequently confirmed unchanged. Intervals from 02:30 AEST through to at least 05:30 AEST remain under active review as of the time of this briefing. These notices relate to potential data input issues rather than dispatch anomalies, and while confirmed prices are unchanged so far, positions referencing those early-morning intervals should be treated with caution until resolution notices are issued.