Commodity Demand — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $79.92/MWh with demand at 6,457 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well into the morning ramp that began at roughly 14:50 AEST (00:50 UTC) when demand was near its overnight trough around 4,465 MW and prices were negative, ranging from -$2 to -$4/MWh. The correlation between demand and price across today's history is tight: the overnight trough produced sustained negative pricing, the pre-dawn ramp through 5,000–6,000 MW pushed prices into the $10–$50/MWh range, and the crossing of 6,200 MW around 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) drove prices above $73/MWh, touching $90.77/MWh at that interval before settling into the current mid-to-high $70s band. The morning peak of 7,524 MW at 18:15 AEST (08:15 UTC) sustained prices consistently between $79 and $86/MWh, confirming a clear price step-change above roughly 7,000 MW.

Demand is now declining from that morning peak — down roughly 1,000 MW from the 7,524 MW intraday high — and is tracking through the typical mid-morning trough phase. Prices are softening in line with demand but remain above $70/MWh, reflecting a generation mix currently dominated by 2,454 MW of black coal and 86 MW of hydro, with solar at zero output given 91% cloud cover and negligible wind potential. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.4%, consistent with the 0.8501 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity reading that has been essentially flat since 07:30 AEST.

The forward price signal is unambiguous: AEMO forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour are clustering at $91–$96/MWh across multiple run times, pointing to a step up in price as the evening demand ramp begins. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) forecast sits at $82.50/MWh in the most recent run, suggesting the market expects the evening peak to be firm but not extreme. Based on the day's demand-price relationship, evening demand above 7,000 MW — which the profile from prior intervals shows is reached within about 90 minutes of the post-solar ramp — will be the threshold to watch for sustained prices in the $82–$92/MWh range.

Note that AEMO has issued a large volume of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 00:00 to 05:30 AEST today, with the 05:10 AEST interval subsequently confirmed unchanged. The overnight negative pricing and early morning intervals from roughly 14:00 to 15:15 AEST remain under review for manifestly incorrect inputs. Traders with exposure to those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO issues confirmations or revisions.