Regional Outlook — VIC1

The VIC1 spot price sits at $0/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, effectively flat after an extended period of negative pricing that ran from around midnight through to the early hours. The overnight trough reached as low as -$63.90/MWh around 14:25 UTC (00:25 AEST), with prices holding deeply negative across the 01:00–05:00 AEST window before recovering through the morning. Total demand currently sits at 4,031 MW, well below this morning's peak of around 5,440 MW recorded near 18:05 AEST, consistent with typical Sunday Anzac Day load suppression. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic Anzac Day shape: deep negatives overnight, a brief morning ramp to a high of $72.74/MWh at 17:40 AEST, then a rapid collapse back toward zero as solar generation lifted and demand retreated through the afternoon and evening.

The current generation mix at 06:30 AEST comprises wind at 1,174 MW, brown coal at 1,052 MW, gas OCGT at 134 MW, hydro at 0.4 MW, and solar at 0 MW (as expected post-sunset). Total scheduled generation sits at approximately 2,361 MW against demand of 4,031 MW, with the balance drawn from interconnector flows. Renewable penetration stands at 49.77%, just below the 50% mark, with wind carrying the entire renewable contribution at this hour given the absence of solar. Carbon intensity is 0.5805 tCO2/MWh, which represents a modest deterioration from the 0.5142 tCO2/MWh recorded at 07:00 AEST as wind's share of the mix has eased relative to brown coal's baseload contribution overnight. The intensity peaked at 0.8853 tCO2/MWh around 18:00–18:30 AEST during the morning demand peak when thermal generation was running harder, before trending down through the afternoon as the mix shifted.

Predispatch forecasts for the next two trading intervals point to continued near-zero pricing. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at -$0.05/MWh, and 07:30 AEST at $0.01/MWh, with a slight upward nudge to $6.53/MWh appearing in one of the most recent 07:00 AEST forecasts issued at 06:01 AEST — suggesting some sensitivity to dispatch conditions at the margin. The 08:00 AEST window is also forecast near zero to marginally negative. The morning shoulder period from 08:30 AEST onward carries forecasts in the $9–$15/MWh range as demand builds with the working week start on Monday — though today being Sunday, that ramp will be gentler. Traders positioning for flexible load should note the window of near-zero or negative prices is likely to persist through at least the 08:30 AEST interval before any meaningful positive price recovery.

One active market notice of direct relevance to VIC1 is the non-conformance declaration for unit LANCSF1 (Lancaster solar farm), which was declared non-conforming by 30 MW for a 5-minute window around 20:05–20:10 AEST. This is a minor and already-resolved event with no ongoing dispatch impact. The Newcastle–