Regional Outlook — TAS1

The spot price sits at $66.24/MWh at 06:35 AEST with total demand at 997 MW — a modest level consistent with a Sunday morning profile. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices traced a clear diurnal arc: overnight troughs dipped as low as $26.75/MWh in the early hours (around 01:40 AEST), a morning peak sustained prices at $88.14–$98.06/MWh through the 17:30–19:15 AEST window, and the current reading represents a material retreat from that peak as evening demand softens. The 24-hour price range has been wide — roughly $72/MWh spread — reflecting Tasmania's sensitivity to demand-driven dispatch signals given limited mainland interconnection headroom.

The generation mix is straightforward: hydro is producing 278 MW and wind 24 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — a position Tasmania has held continuously across every recorded interval in the past 24 hours. The gas OCGT fleet is on standby and has not been dispatched at any point in the data set, indicating hydro and wind have been sufficient to meet local demand across the full period. Total local generation of approximately 302 MW is well below the 997 MW demand figure, confirming Tasmania is a net importer across Basslink from Victoria at present.

Predispatch forecasts for the next trading periods point to prices firming from the current $66/MWh level. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at approximately $75–$82/MWh across recent predispatch runs, with the 07:30 AEST interval tracking between $75 and $88/MWh depending on the run — the most recent runs have nudged that window upward. Intervals through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window (local time) show forecast prices in the $65–$84/MWh range, with the load window data flagging isolated periods around 13:00–14:00 AEST where prices are predicted to drop toward $52–$54/MWh, rated "excellent" quality for demand response or flexible load scheduling.

Active market notices do not directly affect Tasmania. The inter-regional transfer limit notice (143505) concerns the Newcastle–Eraring 330 kV line in NSW, which returned to service at 13:50 AEST on 25 April following a planned outage — this marginally improves NEM-wide transfer capacity and could ease any indirect constraint pressure on Basslink flows. The remaining active notices relate to QLD contingency reclassifications (Mudgeeraba–Terranora lines) and a VIC non-conformance event involving LANCSF1; none carry direct binding constraints on TAS1. AEMO has also flagged planned SSL VPN maintenance on 30 April (CHG0110447) — no market impact is expected for participants using IPWAN or LAN-to-LAN connections.