Regional Outlook — NSW1: Saturday 25 April 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $76.99/MWh against a total demand of 6,458 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Tracing back through the price history reveals a clear diurnal signature: prices collapsed toward zero — and briefly negative — through the early hours (midnight to ~05:00 AEST), then climbed sharply through the morning peak, hitting $90.02/MWh at 13:45 AEST before settling into the current $76–79/MWh band through the evening. The 24-hour average across the dataset sits materially below the current price, reflecting that extended low-price overnight period against a sustained high-price daytime and evening block.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is heavily weighted toward black coal at 4,634 MW, with solar contributing 109 MW and wind 71 MW. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.73%, down sharply from a daytime high of ~14% recorded around 10:00–12:00 AEST when solar output was at its peak. Carbon intensity is 0.8472 tCO2/MWh — among the higher readings of the day; intensity troughed around 0.755–0.762 tCO2/MWh during the midday solar window and has been climbing steadily since approximately 15:30 AEST as solar generation wound down and the dispatch mix shifted back toward black coal.
Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price step-down from the current level. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $71.19/MWh in the most recent predispatch run, down from $76.99/MWh now, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour forecast at $35.88–37.89/MWh. Load window data for the overnight period from 08:00 AEST onwards shows forecast prices tracking negative or near-zero through to approximately 16:30 AEST today, with some intervals as low as -$26/MWh in the 03:30–04:00 AEST window — consistent with the overnight pattern seen last night. The transition back toward positive prices is forecast around 16:30 AEST (~$25/MWh).
On market notices, the most operationally significant item for NSW is the inter-regional transfer notice (Market Notice 143505): the Newcastle–Eraring 500/93 330kV line returned to service at 13:50 AEST on 25 April, with constraint set N-ERNC_93 revoked. This line had been on a planned outage since 7 April, and its restoration removes a binding constraint on NSW inter-regional transfer capability. The QLD1 contingency notices relating to the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110kV lines have cycled through multiple reclassifications due to lightning activity but carry no direct NSW constraint invocations. A planned AEMO market systems maintenance window (Cisco ISE servers) is scheduled for 30 April 20:00–04:00 AEST — SSL VPN participants should note potential authentication delays during that window, though no participant data impact is anticipated.