NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are orderly this Sunday morning, with the standout being Victoria printing $0/MWh against a demand of 4,031 MW — a direct result of 1,174 MW of wind generation flooding the state at a time when three interconnectors out of VIC are running at or near their export limits. VIC1-NSW1 is flowing 906 MW eastward (binding at its export limit), V-SA is pushing 481 MW into South Australia (also binding), and V-S-MNSP1 is sending 166 MW to Snowy — Victoria is exporting its surplus aggressively in all directions. SA sits at $112.60/MWh despite receiving that 481 MW import, supported by 137 MW of local wind and 115 MW of gas CCGT, with 100% cloud cover suppressing all solar contribution. NSW clears at $76.99/MWh with 6,458 MW of demand met predominantly by 4,634 MW of black coal; renewables account for just 3.7% of NSW generation at this interval. QLD is similarly coal-heavy at 2,333 MW, clearing at $71.49/MWh with renewables at 3.6%.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 47% per the current gridIQ score, though that figure is heavily skewed by Victoria's wind output and Tasmania's 100% renewable mix (278 MW hydro, 24 MW wind, zero intensity). The carbon intensity spread across regions is stark: Tasmania at 0 tCO2/MWh, SA at 0.22 tCO2/MWh, Victoria at 0.58 tCO2/MWh, and NSW and QLD both above 0.84 tCO2/MWh on the back of coal-dominant dispatch. Grid stress scores at 60.6, reflecting the binding interconnector conditions out of Victoria rather than any supply shortfall.

Two market notices are worth tracking today. The Newcastle–Eraring 500/93 330kV line returned to service at 13:50 yesterday after a planned outage running since 7 April, with constraint set N-ERNC_93 now revoked — this restores full transfer capability on that NSW corridor ahead of today's trading. A Victorian non-conformance was declared on unit LANCSF1 for a brief 30 MW deviation around 10:05–10:10 yesterday; that constraint has been issued but no ongoing impact is flagged. The Mudgeeraba–Terranora lightning reclassifications in QLD cycled through multiple activations and cancellations over the past 48 hours; the most recent notice cancels the credible contingency classification as of 12:14 yesterday, so that QLD–NSW border corridor is currently operating under normal contingency assumptions.

With solar potential at zero across all regions this early morning and heating demand present but modest (NSW 4.1, TAS 4.8 degree-days), today's renewable contribution will depend almost entirely on wind. Victoria's wind resource remains the key variable — if output holds or builds through the morning, expect continued pressure on VIC prices and sustained binding on VIC1-NSW1 and V-SA. SA's fully overcast conditions and near-zero wind speed (2.5 km/h) mean local wind generation of 137 MW could soften further, putting more weight on the Victorian import and gas CCGT to cover any demand lift.