Commodity Demand — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh at 6:35 AEST with demand at 4,107 MW — a Sunday morning level that is broadly consistent with the soft conditions that have kept prices at or near zero since around 19:00 last night. Today's demand profile has followed a textbook weekend pattern: the overnight trough reached approximately 2,550–2,660 MW between 12:30–14:30 AEST, prices pushed as deep as -$63.90/MWh during that window, and demand has been recovering steadily through the morning. The morning ramp drove the sharpest price response of the day, with the 16:30–17:45 AEST period (06:30–07:45 UTC) producing prices of $46–$73/MWh as demand climbed above 4,600–5,300 MW — the only sustained positive price excursion in over 18 hours of trading.

The demand-price relationship today is tightly compressed by weekend load softness and wind output. Wind is currently generating 1,174 MW and brown coal sits at a steady 1,052 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 134 MW. With solar at zero in the overnight-to-early-morning window and overall renewable penetration at 49.77%, supply has consistently exceeded demand requirements through the low-demand hours, producing the persistent negative price regime seen from roughly 23:00 AEST through to 16:15 AEST. The morning ramp — demand lifting roughly 2,600 MW in under five hours — was the primary mechanism that briefly cleared marginal generation at positive prices before wind output and residual baseload reasserted downward pressure.

The forecast price signal for today's remaining periods is unambiguous: the 07:00 UTC (17:00 AEST) interval is forecast at -$0.05/MWh, the 07:30 UTC interval at $0.01–$8.95/MWh depending on the forecast run, and the 08:30 AEST half-hour period is tracking toward small negative to low-single-digit positive territory. The steeper negative forecasts re-emerge from roughly 08:30 AEST (22:30 UTC) and deepen through the overnight, with some runs showing -$34/MWh at 13:00 AEST and -$60/MWh-range prices in the 01:00–04:00 AEST window — directly mirroring the demand trough expected when Victorian load again falls below 2,700 MW. One demand-side factor to note: AEMO issued a non-conformance notice against LANCSF1 (Lancaster Solar Farm 1) for a 30 MW deviation at 10:05–10:10 AEST, a minor event with no lasting price impact.

For demand-side participants, the price outlook today is structurally favourable for flexible load. Negative prices are expected to persist through most of the daytime hours and deepen again overnight, with the only meaningful positive price window having already passed during the 06:30–08:30 AEST morning ramp. Any discretionary load that can be shifted to the 21:00–05:00 AEST window faces forecast prices ranging from -$0.05/MWh to as low as -$34/MWh, while the approaching 06:30 AEST ramp period tomorrow is currently forecast at $9–$15/MWh, providing a clear