Commodity Demand — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $66.24/MWh with demand at 997 MW as of 06:35 AEST, a marked retreat from the day's peak of 1,163 MW reached around 18:05–18:10 AEST when prices held in the $88–$96/MWh band for several hours. The demand profile across today traces a clear autumn pattern: a deep overnight trough bottoming near 834 MW around 11:40–11:50 AEST (prices as low as $26.75–$27/MWh), a sharp morning ramp from approximately 14:00 AEST that drove demand through 1,100 MW by 17:15 AEST, sustained elevated pricing in the $88–$98/MWh range for roughly four hours, before demand eased back through the evening. The price sensitivity is pronounced — every demand increment above roughly 1,050 MW has consistently triggered a step-change into the $88/MWh tier, with brief excursions to $96–$98/MWh near the 1,150–1,163 MW peak, confirming a tight supply stack at that demand level.

Current demand at 997 MW sits just below the threshold where pricing has consistently hardened today. The near-term forecast is for prices to firm into the $75–$88/MWh range through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window as demand is expected to rise with the Sunday morning load build, though forecasts through to 09:30 AEST cluster around $75/MWh, suggesting the market does not anticipate demand challenging today's peak levels again. Further out, the 10:00–11:30 AEST window sees forecast prices stepping back toward $65–$71/MWh as overnight demand softens, with some intervals forecasting sub-$65/MWh — the lowest forecast prices of the coming period — consistent with the deep off-peak trough pattern already observed today.

Generation is currently 278 MW hydro and 24 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero output. The gap between local generation (approximately 302 MW) and demand (997 MW) is covered by Basslink imports, which means Tasmania's spot price is materially influenced by Victorian market conditions and interconnector availability. Notably, all market notices are unrelated to Tasmanian network constraints — the active notices concern NSW and Queensland contingency events — so no constraint-driven price uplift is flagged for TAS1 at present. Demand-side participants with flexibility should note that the Sunday load profile historically runs 5–10% below weekday equivalents at comparable hours, which supports the market's relatively benign forecast pricing outlook for the remainder of today.