Commodity Demand — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $182.67/MWh at 06:35 AEST with demand at 1,210.72 MW — a sharp repricing from the sub-$15/MWh range that dominated the 03:00–05:30 AEST window. The price jump is disproportionate to demand; 1,210 MW is not an exceptional load level for SA, but the loss of solar output as the market transitions into the post-dawn period removes a key supply cushion. Wind is contributing 136.63 MW and gas CCGT 114.9 MW, with solar at zero, leaving the dispatch stack thinner than it was through the middle of the day when demand was sitting 150–300 MW higher and prices were trading in the $30–$130/MWh band. Carbon intensity stands at 0.2238 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 54.32%, down sharply from the 85–92% renewable share recorded in the early overnight hours.

The demand trajectory today tells the core price story. SA demand troughed at around 455 MW between 13:25–13:55 AEST (UTC 03:25–03:55) during the overnight minimum, driving prices to their deepest negatives — reaching as low as -$61.27/MWh at 14:50 AEST. As demand climbed through the morning ramp, prices escalated in close step: 1,250 MW at 16:25 AEST triggered $4.27/MWh; by 17:20 AEST at 1,432 MW prices were at $64.26/MWh; the intraday peak of around 1,563 MW at 18:40 AEST coincided with prices printing at $105–$113/MWh. This is a textbook demand-price ladder for SA's tight supply conditions — roughly every 200 MW of incremental demand above 1,200 MW adds $50–$70/MWh to the clearing price during non-solar hours.

The forecast outlook for the remainder of today points to a significant price reset. Across multiple PASA runs, the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour is forecast between $10–$12/MWh, converging tightly after earlier runs showed volatility up to $145/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast in the $6–$18/MWh range. From 08:00 AEST onward, forecasts step back toward flat-to-negative territory through the overnight hours, with the 10:30–11:30 AEST window (00:30–01:30 UTC) forecast as low as -$12.50/MWh. This profile is consistent with a Sunday demand pattern — load easing from the current 1,200 MW level as residential morning demand peaks pass, before the overnight trough returns. Being a public holiday weekend (ANZAC Day), residential load will likely soften faster than a standard Sunday.

The key demand-side watch for today is whether the Sunday/holiday profile keeps demand below the 1,300 MW threshold through the afternoon, which based on the forecast consensus should hold prices in the $10–$35/MWh corridor for most of the AEST business day. The morning ramp risk window between 16:00–17:30 AEST is where demand-price sensitivity is sharpest; if demand approaches