Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 25 April 2026

The current NSW spot price sits at $76.99/MWh with demand at 6,447 MW as of 06:35 AEST — a sharp step-down from today's peak of 8,119 MW recorded around 18:05–18:15 AEST, which coincided with prices holding firmly in the $76.99–$79.10/MWh band. The day's price trajectory tracked demand closely: the overnight trough between roughly 01:00 and 03:00 AEST saw demand fall to around 4,600–4,800 MW with prices collapsing to zero or marginally negative, while the morning ramp from 14:30–17:30 AEST drove demand from ~5,100 MW to over 8,000 MW and lifted prices from the $11–$23/MWh range into the high $60s and then consistently $76.99/MWh. The price-demand relationship today shows a clear threshold effect: demand above approximately 7,500 MW anchors the RRP firmly at or near $76.99/MWh, with brief excursions to $89–$91/MWh during the early afternoon as demand sat around 6,900–7,300 MW and dispatch became tighter.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal at 4,634 MW supplying the bulk of demand, with solar contributing 109 MW and wind 71 MW — renewable penetration stands at just 3.73% at this hour as solar output is minimal given the time of day. Carbon intensity is 0.8472 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the overnight and evening range across today. The Newcastle–Eraring 330kV line, which had been on a planned outage since 7 April, returned to service at 13:50 AEST today following completion of works — the constraint set N-ERNC_93 has been revoked, which removes a transmission binding that was present through the bulk of today's trading and may have contributed to the elevated and sticky $76.99/MWh price floor during the afternoon and evening periods.

The forward price signal shifts materially once demand falls below today's current level. Forecasts for 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) are converging on $71.19/MWh in the most recent pre-dispatch runs, down from the $76.99/MWh currently clearing, and the 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $35.88–$37.89/MWh — consistent with demand continuing to unwind through the evening. Load window modelling shows prices falling sharply after 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC), with overnight half-hours from 09:00 AEST onwards forecast at or below zero, reflecting the low-demand overnight profile where supply comfortably exceeds scheduled load. The deepest negative forecasts — reaching -$26/MWh in some pre-dispatch runs — cluster in the 13:30–14:00 AEST window (03:30–04:00 UTC), which aligns with the historical demand trough around 4,600–4,700 MW seen in last night's equivalent period.

For demand-side managers and flexible load operators, the overnight window from approximately 09:30 AEST through to 15:00 AEST offers the most sustained low and negative price opportunity, with today's history confirming that demand below 5,000