Carbon Forecast

Queensland leads NEM emissions at 0.8488 tCO2/MWh with renewables covering just 3.55% of its mix — black coal at 2,333 MW and a negligible 0.06 MW of gas OCGT account for virtually all generation, with hydro providing 86 MW. NSW sits alongside it at 0.8472 tCO2/MWh, where 4,634 MW of black coal dominates and wind plus solar contribute a combined 179 MW, or 3.73% of supply. At the other end of the spectrum, Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — 278 MW of hydro and 24 MW of wind — a position it has held without interruption across all intervals in today's data. South Australia is at 0.2238 tCO2/MWh with 54.32% renewable penetration, driven by 137 MW of wind and 115 MW of gas CCGT providing the balance. Victoria sits at 0.5805 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 49.77%, where 1,174 MW of wind runs alongside 1,052 MW of brown coal and 134 MW of gas OCGT.

The trajectory through today shows a clear pattern across the eastern mainland regions. NSW and QLD both carry elevated intensity through the overnight and morning shoulder — NSW was above 0.85 tCO2/MWh at the pre-dawn low-solar trough — with modest relief appearing between roughly 07:00 and 13:00 AEST as solar lifts renewable penetration. In NSW, intensity dipped to a daytime low of approximately 0.7557 tCO2/MWh at 10:00 AEST when renewables reached 14.1%. QLD showed almost no solar relief today, with intensity holding near 0.848–0.850 tCO2/MWh from mid-morning through the afternoon, indicating solar is not meaningfully displacing coal in that region's current dispatch. Victoria saw its best intensity earlier in the day — down to 0.609 tCO2/MWh around 11:00 AEST as renewables pushed toward 48% — and has been gradually improving through the late afternoon as wind holds above 1,170 MW with intensity around 0.58 tCO2/MWh. SA's profile has been more variable, swinging between 0.04 tCO2/MWh overnight (>91% renewables) and 0.34 tCO2/MWh mid-morning as wind output fluctuated.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal windows for the rest of today are concentrated in SA and Tasmania. SA's overnight period from approximately 21:00 AEST onward is where intensity has consistently dropped below 0.10 tCO2/MWh as demand eases and wind holds. Tasmania remains the cleanest option across all hours with no thermal generation in the mix. Victoria's late evening window — currently trending toward 0.58 tCO2/MWh with wind sustaining near 50% renewables — offers the best mainland alternative for flexible loads that cannot access SA or TAS interconnection. NSW and QLD present no low-intensity window for the remainder of today; with solar output at zero after sunset and black coal carrying base load, both regions will hold near 0.84–0.87 tCO2/MWh