Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 24 April 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at -$8.89/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 4,111 MW — a Saturday morning low-demand profile. The 24-hour price trajectory tells a stark story: prices ran between $60–$78/MWh through the 17:00–19:00 AEST morning peak window, collapsed sharply from around 21:15 AEST as demand eased, and have traded negative for the bulk of the overnight and early morning period, touching a trough of -$13.45/MWh around 04:30–05:00 AEST. The current negative price reflects supply exceeding demand in a low-load window.
The generation mix at the most recent interval (06:00 AEST) shows wind contributing 1,435 MW, brown coal at 1,077 MW, gas OCGT at 138 MW, hydro at 16 MW, solar at 0 MW (pre-sunrise), and gas CCGT offline. Wind is the single largest fuel source by output. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5264 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 54.44% — a marked improvement from the 07:30–10:00 AEST window earlier in the trading day when intensity peaked above 0.95 tCO2/MWh and renewables fell below 21% as morning demand surged and the wind contribution was proportionally lower relative to dispatchable plant. The overnight wind-heavy period has driven intensity down by nearly 45% from that intraday high.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours (the next two settlement periods) are both pointing to around -$3.55/MWh, consistent with the current negative pricing regime persisting through the early morning. Load window modelling shows negative prices deepening through the 09:00–13:30 AEST window (UTC 23:00–03:30), with some forecast intervals showing prices below -$50/MWh and isolated runs toward -$200/MWh at 13:00 AEST — likely reflecting anticipated wind generation exceeding minimum load with limited export or storage headroom. Flexible load operators and battery charging strategies should flag the 09:00–13:30 AEST window as a high-value consumption opportunity.
On market notices, there are no active notices directly affecting VIC1. The active contingency reclassification (Market Notice 143502) concerns the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines in QLD1 due to lightning activity, with no constraint sets invoked and no flagged Victorian impact. A series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices were issued across the 15:30–17:40 AEST intervals under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), though the 17:30 interval was subsequently confirmed unchanged. The outstanding review notices for 15:35 through 17:40 AEST intervals remain active — traders should note those prices are not yet finalised and retroactive adjustments remain possible. A planned AEMO systems maintenance window (Cisco ISE servers) is scheduled for 30 April and is not expected to affect market participation connectivity.