regional sa — SA1
The spot price in South Australia sits at -$8.50/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,263 MW. This negative pricing reflects the overnight pattern that has dominated SA1 since roughly 08:00 AEST last night, when prices turned negative and held there through the early hours of this morning. The sole exception was the morning peak period between approximately 16:15 and 18:00 AEST, where prices climbed to a intraday high of $81.15/MWh at 18:00 AEST before collapsing back into negative territory as demand fell away. The 24-hour weighted average across the price history sits well below $20/MWh once the extended negative run is factored in.
The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 850 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 81 MW and gas OCGT and solar both at zero. Renewable penetration stands at 91.27% at the latest interval, consistent with the trend since mid-afternoon AEST which has seen renewables hold above 91% continuously. Carbon intensity is 0.0428 tCO2/MWh, near the low end of today's range — the highest intensity recorded was 0.1098 tCO2/MWh around 15:30 AEST when overnight wind eased and gas contribution was proportionally higher against lower total generation.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued negative pricing through the next several hours of today. The 07:00 AEST half-hour target is forecast at around -$3.30/MWh, and load window data shows progressively deeper negative prices from 08:00 AEST onward, with forecast half-hour prices reaching into the -$60/MWh to -$190/MWh range between approximately 13:00 and 15:00 AEST. The 13:00 AEST window carries outlier forecasts approaching -$190/MWh, indicating strong wind generation is expected to coincide with weekend-suppressed demand — flexible loads and batteries should note this window as a prime dispatch opportunity.
On market notices, there are no active AEMO notices directly affecting SA1 operations. The active contingency reclassification notices all relate to the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines in QLD1 due to lightning activity, currently classified as a credible contingency event as of 04:09 AEST today; this has no direct constraint impact on SA1 but traders with exposure to NEM-wide interconnector flows should monitor any QLD1 constraint escalation. A series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices was issued for SA1 intervals covering the 15:00–17:40 AEST window, with the 17:30 AEST interval subsequently confirmed unchanged under Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review. The 17:35 and 17:40 AEST intervals remain subject to review and have not yet been confirmed — traders with positions in those intervals should treat those prices as provisional.