Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 24 April 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $64.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,730 MW — materially lower than the morning peak of around 7,568 MW reached near 17:50 AEST and well down from the overnight trough where prices repeatedly hit zero or negative territory between roughly 09:30 and 10:30 AEST (UTC 23:30–00:30). The 24-hour price trajectory shows the classic Saturday profile: near-zero and negative prices through the early morning hours (including a brief -$2.30/MWh), a sharp ramp into the $64–$88/MWh range during the morning peak, followed by a gradual descent back through the $60s as demand eases into the evening.
The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 2,205 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the pre-dawn settlement time. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.75% — a significant compression from the overnight period where wind and other renewables pushed the renewable share above 20% (peaking near 23.5% around 12:30 AEST). Carbon intensity is 0.847 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's range; it was as low as 0.674 tCO2/MWh during the overnight period when renewable penetration was higher and demand was lighter.
Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price step-down through the coming hours. The most recent forecast (issued 06:32 AEST) targets $55.73/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval and $34.15/MWh for 07:30 AEST, consistent with solar generation beginning to displace thermal dispatch as daylight arrives. Earlier in the day, predispatch runs were forecasting the 07:00 slot as low as $39.75–$52.36/MWh before converging upward, suggesting some uncertainty in the ramp profile; the final pre-dispatch run landed at $55.73/MWh. The load window data confirms prices are forecast to go negative again from around 08:00 AEST onward through the middle of the day, with the deepest negative windows (reaching -$25/MWh or lower in some model runs) clustered between 11:30 AEST and 14:00 AEST — typical for a weekend day with high solar output and reduced industrial demand.
The active market notices carry two threads. First, AEMO has reclassified the simultaneous trip of the Mudgeeraba–Terranora No.757 and No.758 110 kV lines (the QLD–NSW interconnector corridor at the Gold Coast end) as a credible contingency event from 04:09 AEST today due to lightning activity in the area; no constraint sets have been invoked as yet, but traders with QNI-exposed positions should monitor for any binding constraints if storm activity continues. Second, a large batch of "Prices Subject to Review" notices covers the 15:05–17:40 AEST window from Friday 24 April under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs); the 17:30 interval has since been confirmed unchanged, but several intervals in that block remain under active review — settlements for those intervals are not yet final.