regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $69.29/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,686 MW — a Saturday morning figure well below the peaks of 8,950 MW seen during the midweek morning peak. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices ranged from a low of $2.57/MWh in the early hours to a high of $92.63/MWh at the 23:40 AEST interval, with the bulk of the trading day anchored in the $65–$79/MWh band. The current price is broadly in line with the recent evening average, reflecting a modest overnight demand trough and gradual recovery as the morning progresses.
The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,356 MW, with wind contributing 146 MW and solar 150 MW. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero dispatch. Renewable penetration sits at 6.36%, consistent with the post-sunset profile — the carbon history shows renewables peaked at around 19–20% during the 08:30–10:30 AEST window when solar was active, before retreating sharply as generation shifted back to coal through the afternoon. Carbon intensity is currently 0.824 tCO2/MWh, up from the midday low of approximately 0.709 tCO2/MWh. With solar generation expected to ramp again as daylight returns, intensity is likely to ease through the morning before climbing again in the early evening.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour interval point to $59.79/MWh, stepping down to around $35.88/MWh by 08:30 AEST — consistent with overnight and early-morning low-demand conditions giving way to solar-driven price suppression. Load window data supports this, with multiple negative-price intervals forecast between 08:30 and 15:30 AEST (UTC 22:30–05:30), presenting opportunities for flexible industrial loads and battery charge cycles. The deepest forecast negatives reach below -$25/MWh in the 11:30–14:00 AEST window.
On market notices, there are no active system notices directly affecting NSW1. The volume of PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW notices issued for the 15:00–17:40 AEST intervals on 24 April under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) is notable; the 17:30 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged, and at least one review remains open for the 17:35 and 17:40 intervals. Separately, the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV contingency reclassification in QLD1 (due to lightning activity) remains active from 04:09 AEST today with no constraint sets invoked, and no direct NSW constraint impact is indicated at this stage. Traders should monitor that notice given the NSW–QLD interconnector sensitivity to binding transmission constraints on the SEQ corridor.