NEM Overview

Spot prices are split firmly across the NEM at the 06:30 AEST interval. NSW sits at $69.29/MWh on 6,686 MW of demand, QLD at $64.83/MWh on 5,730 MW, and TAS at $65.22/MWh — a tight cluster in the mid-sixties. Victoria and SA are both printing negative: -$8.89/MWh and -$8.50/MWh respectively, driven by 1,435 MW of wind in VIC and 860 MW in SA against subdued overnight demand of 4,111 MW and 1,263 MW. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is at its export limit of 963.59 MW and binding, meaning surplus Victorian generation is being absorbed into NSW but the link is fully loaded. Mainland SA is also exporting via Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1 binding at -155.29 MW), so neither interconnector has headroom to further relieve southern oversupply. WA sits separate at $104.80/MWh on the most recent available data.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 39.1% on the gridIQ score, but the regional picture is sharply divergent. SA is at 91.16% renewable with carbon intensity of just 0.043 tCO2/MWh, TAS is at 100% on 268 MW hydro and 35 MW wind with zero intensity, and VIC reaches 54.44% renewable at 0.526 tCO2/MWh. NSW and QLD are the other end of the spectrum: NSW is running 4,356 MW of black coal against only 296 MW combined wind and solar, putting renewable penetration at 6.36% and intensity at 0.824 tCO2/MWh. QLD is similarly coal-heavy at 2,215 MW black coal, 3.74% renewable and 0.847 tCO2/MWh. Neither state has gas or hydro dispatched at material volumes this interval, and solar is zero across the entire NEM — it is pre-dawn and generation mix will shift materially once the sun rises, typically from around 07:00–07:30 AEST.

The primary network notice to watch is the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV double circuit in QLD1, reclassified as a credible contingency event due to lightning at 04:09 AEST this morning and still active. This is the third reclassification of these same two lines in the past 24 hours — the prior two were cancelled once lightning cleared, then reinstated. No constraint sets are currently invoked, but the pattern indicates ongoing storm activity in south-east Queensland near the NSW border. Traders with exposure to the QLD–NSW boundary should note that if a constraint set is invoked on this contingency, QLD export capacity toward NSW could tighten further. Separately, a batch of intervals from 15:00–17:40 AEST on 24 April remain flagged as prices subject to review for manifestly incorrect inputs, though the 17:30 interval has since been confirmed unchanged.

The outlook for today is shaped by Saturday low demand and the autumn solar ramp. With temperatures ranging from 12–18°C across the NEM and heating demand modest, no material demand spike is expected. As rooftop and utility solar builds from mid-morning, expect downward price pressure