Interconnector Watch

NEM interconnectors are carrying significant cross-regional flows at 06:30 AEST, with one binding constraint actively shaping the market and a second MNSP at its limit. The most consequential flow is VIC1-NSW1 (Heywood's northern cousin, the VIC-NSW interconnector), running at exactly 963.59 MW north from Victoria into New South Wales — bound at its export limit and fully constraining the market. This is directly reflected in the sharp price divergence: Victoria sits at -$8.89/MWh while NSW clears at $69.29/MWh, a spread of $78.18/MWh that the constrained link cannot arbitrage away. Additional Victorian surplus cannot reach NSW consumers regardless of price signal, locking in negative pricing on the southern side.

Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also binding, flowing 155.29 MW from Victoria into South Australia at both its import and export limits — the identical import and export limit values confirm it is wedged at capacity in both directions, meaning no further movement is possible through that link. Despite this, SA prices at -$8.50/MWh align closely with Victoria, suggesting Murraylink has already transferred sufficient surplus to equilibrate the two regions at negative levels. Heywood (V-SA) is running 112.63 MW from SA back into Victoria — a modest counter-flow — and is well within its ±496–578 MW envelope, not binding.

Queensland's interconnector picture is more relaxed. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is carrying 407.6 MW southward from Queensland into NSW, utilising 42% of its southward import capacity of 967.96 MW. This flow is consistent with the tight $4.46/MWh price differential between QLD ($64.83/MWh) and NSW ($69.29/MWh) — QNI is open and arbitraging, but the spread remains because transmission losses and offer stack dynamics prevent full convergence. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 115.27 MW from Tasmania into Victoria — at 37% of its southward capacity — and is not binding; Tasmania clears at $65.22/MWh against Victoria's negative price, which would ordinarily incentivise heavier flow south, but Basslink's capacity and Tasmanian hydro dispatch are constraining the response. Directional convention note: no loss data is reported across any interconnector in this interval, so loss-adjusted price separation analysis is not available for this period.

In summary, the binding VIC-NSW constraint is the dominant market structure issue right now, trapping Victorian oversupply and sustaining an $78/MWh cross-border price wedge. Murraylink being at its limits into SA is a secondary constraint. There are no active constraint notices on the board at this time.