commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $65.22/MWh with demand at 1,002 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a notably subdued Saturday morning reading that reflects the region's typical weekend profile. The price-demand relationship across today's data tells a clear story: the session's sharpest price spike to $140.02/MWh coincided with demand climbing through 1,125 MW around 16:30 AEST, while the overnight trough saw demand dip to around 834 MW with prices settling in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh. The morning peak between 17:00–18:30 AEST pushed demand above 1,190 MW and sustained prices firmly above $106/MWh for nearly two hours, underscoring how sensitive TAS1 pricing is to demand crossing the 1,100 MW threshold — a level where the marginal dispatch stack evidently tightens.

Demand has now retreated from those highs through the late-evening period, tracking back toward 1,000 MW, and prices have followed, easing from the $84–88/MWh range seen in the 05:30–06:00 AEST window down to the current $65.22/MWh. The generation mix shows hydro at 302.58 MW and wind at 34.56 MW, with gas OCGT idle, consistent with a relaxed supply position at this demand level. Near-term AEMO forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST intervals converge on $65–72/MWh, signalling the market expects current conditions to persist through the early morning.

The Saturday demand trajectory points to a gradual build through the morning toward a daytime plateau, with no forecast indicating a return to the 1,100+ MW levels that drove today's price spikes. Load window data projects overnight prices in the $17–$55/MWh range between 09:30–15:30 AEST, with the deepest discounts in the 11:00–13:30 AEST window — conditions favourable for demand-side load shifting. The morning ANZAC Day public holiday context is relevant: commercial and industrial load typically remains suppressed on public holidays, which reduces the probability of a sharp demand-driven price escalation during the morning ramp period. Traders should note the active market notice regarding manifestly incorrect inputs review across numerous afternoon intervals, though these relate to NEM-wide processes and the 17:30 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged.