Carbon Forecast

NEM carbon intensity sits at sharply divergent levels across regions at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro at 302.58 MW and wind at 34.56 MW covering all local demand. South Australia follows at 0.04 tCO2/MWh with 91.27% renewables, driven by 850 MW of wind with only 81.34 MW of gas CCGT in the mix. Victoria sits at 0.51 tCO2/MWh with 56.27% renewables, where 1,518 MW of wind is running alongside 1,056 MW of brown coal and 136.62 MW of gas OCGT. Queensland and New South Wales are the highest-intensity regions at 0.85 and 0.83 tCO2/MWh respectively — Queensland's mix is 2,205 MW black coal with hydro at 86 MW and renewable penetration at just 3.75%, while NSW runs 4,551 MW of black coal against 290 MW combined wind and solar, delivering only 5.98% renewables.

The intensity trajectory through today reflects the April solar profile. In NSW, the data shows a clear midday trough — intensity fell to around 0.71 tCO2/MWh between 17:30 and 20:30 AEST as rooftop and utility solar ramped, before climbing back toward 0.83 tCO2/MWh once solar output dropped. Today's solar window in NSW is expected to repeat, with intensity likely dipping into the 0.71–0.73 range between roughly 17:00 and 20:30 AEST (03:00–06:30 UTC). Victoria follows a similar solar-driven pattern, with intensity reaching its daily low around 0.50 tCO2/MWh in the evening shoulder on strong wind, and that level is likely to persist or improve through midday if wind holds at current output. Queensland shows minimal solar sensitivity in the data — intensity has been flat at 0.847–0.849 tCO2/MWh across the entire day with negligible renewable variation, and no significant improvement is expected today without a material wind event.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA and Tasmania represent the lowest-intensity options across the full 24-hour window — SA has held below 0.11 tCO2/MWh throughout, and Tasmania has registered zero all day. The optimal scheduling windows for NSW and Victoria are the solar hours between approximately 17:00 and 21:00 AEST, where intensity is 12–15% lower than overnight baseload levels. Operators shifting flexible loads — EV charging, electrolysis, data centre workloads — should target SA or TAS at any hour, and NSW/VIC in the 17:00–21:00 AEST band. Queensland offers no comparable low-intensity window under today's generation mix.