regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $8.95/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 4,946 MW — well below the morning peak of 6,330 MW recorded around 18:10 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices surged through the morning peak, hitting $100.50/MWh at 17:30 and 18:00 AEST, before collapsing through the afternoon as demand fell and supply remained ample, with extended intervals at or below zero between roughly 03:00 and 05:00 AEST. The current $8.95/MWh level reflects the post-evening ramp settling phase as overnight demand builds gradually from its trough near 3,350 MW.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows wind contributing 1,059 MW, brown coal at 1,195 MW, gas (OCGT) at 109 MW, hydro at 0.4 MW, and solar at zero — consistent with a pre-dawn interval. Renewables are contributing 44.82% of generation at the latest read, a marked improvement from the 11–13% penetration recorded during the morning peak (17:00–18:00 AEST) when wind output is typically lower. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.6468 tCO2/MWh, down from a day-high of 1.0488 tCO2/MWh at 17:00 AEST when brown coal's share of the lower-demand mix was at its most concentrated. The improvement through the late afternoon and evening correlates directly with rising wind output.

Predispatch forecasts point to a step-up in price at the 07:00 AEST half-hour, with the 21:00 UTC interval (07:00 AEST) forecast at $37.68/MWh — consistent across multiple forecast runs issued through the evening. The 07:30 AEST interval carries a single latest forecast of $8.95/MWh, though earlier runs for that interval ranged between $30 and $40, indicating some dispatch-model uncertainty around that transition. Load window data shows continued negative or near-zero prices forecast from 08:30 through to approximately 12:30 AEST (22:30–02:00 UTC), with some intervals pricing as low as -$50/MWh around 13:30–14:00 AEST. This is the optimal demand-shifting window for flexible industrial loads today.

Traders should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices: AEMO flagged Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews across approximately 30 consecutive intervals from 19:00 through to 21:45 AEST. Of these, the 21:25 AEST interval has been reviewed and confirmed unchanged; intervals from 20:30 through 21:45 AEST remain subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B. Prices for those intervals could be revised, which has settlement risk implications for any positions taken during that window. A separate contingency reclassification involving the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines in QLD1 due to lightning was issued and subsequently cancelled, with no constraint sets invoked and no direct impact on Victorian dispatch.