regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $22.25/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,376 MW. That price is materially softer than the sustained run of $80–$135/MWh seen during this morning's pre-dawn ramp (17:00–19:00 AEST yesterday local evening), and represents a significant easing as the overnight period progresses. The generation mix at this interval is dominated by wind at 737 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 84 MW and OCGT offline. Solar output is zero, consistent with the overnight window. Wind is covering the overwhelming majority of local generation, with renewables sitting at 89.77% penetration and carbon intensity at 0.0501 tCO2/MWh — one of the lower readings across today's carbon history, which bottomed at 0.0298 tCO2/MWh around midday (AEST) during peak solar and wind overlap.

Predispatch forecasts point to a modest step-up from current levels. The 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $27.40/MWh (latest run), with the 07:30 AEST interval carrying a forecast of $21.08/MWh — both runs have been converging downward from earlier predispatch estimates that had the 07:30 period as high as $59.55/MWh. The load window data confirms negative or near-zero prices are expected through the 08:30–10:30 AEST window (00:30–02:30 UTC), with indicative prices reaching as low as -$51.57/MWh in some predispatch traces, reflecting sustained overnight wind output against low demand. Flexible load operators and battery charging strategies should note this window as a high-value consumption opportunity.

Traders should be aware of a significant volume of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a consecutive run of intervals from approximately 19:00 through to 21:45 AEST. The 19:55 AEST and 21:25 AEST intervals have since been confirmed with prices unchanged, but intervals from 20:10 through to 21:45 AEST remain under active review as of the latest notice timestamps. These notices do not affect SA1 in isolation — affected regions are not specified — but the volume and continuity of reviews across this block warrants monitoring for any retrospective price revision. A separate contingency reclassification notice relating to two 110 kV lines in QLD1 (Mudgeeraba–Terranora) was issued and subsequently cancelled within the same window; no constraint sets were invoked and no direct SA1 impact is indicated.

Looking across today's full price profile, SA ran sub-zero for an extended stretch from roughly 08:30 AEST through to 13:30 AEST (00:00–03:00 UTC), with demand troughing around 500–550 MW and wind generation sustained. The morning demand ramp from 13:30 AEST drove prices into the $75–$135/MWh range through the breakfast peak before easing progressively through the solar window into the low tens and sub-zero territory during the afternoon. The evening settled in the $10–$30/MWh corridor. With 100% cloud cover and zero solar potential recorded in current weather data, today's daytime price suppression