Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 23 April 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $84.73/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the $52–$65/MWh band that dominated the afternoon and evening. Total demand stands at 6,516 MW and is climbing on the morning ramp. The 24-hour price history shows a classic overnight profile: prices collapsed into negative territory from roughly 07:30–12:30 AEST (bottoming near -$4.09/MWh around 10:25 AEST) before recovering steadily through the evening peak, where prices briefly touched $79.98/MWh at 17:30 AEST. The current $84.73/MWh print marks the high watermark of this cycle, driven by demand climbing back toward 6,500+ MW as the Friday morning ramp takes hold.
The generation mix is heavily weighted toward black coal at 2,472.69 MW, with hydro contributing 64.5 MW, gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW, and solar at 0.2 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewables are contributing just 2.55% of generation at this interval, the lowest penetration of the 24-hour window. Carbon intensity stands at 0.8576 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's range; the carbon history shows intensity eased to a trough of around 0.69–0.71 tCO2/MWh during the overnight negative-price period (roughly 08:00–09:00 AEST) when off-peak demand compressed thermal dispatch, before climbing steadily from around 13:00 AEST as solar dropped off and demand recovered.
Predispatch forecasts point to a softening trajectory from here. The 07:00 AEST trading period is forecast at $79.98/MWh, easing to $71.83/MWh by 07:30 AEST as morning solar generation begins to build and demand stabilises post-ramp. Load shift windows indicate strongly negative prices are expected to return from approximately 08:00–10:30 AEST (AEST: UTC+10), with some forecast windows reaching -$25/MWh to -$35/MWh between 13:00–14:30 AEST — consistent with yesterday's solar-driven oversupply pattern. Flexible loads and battery operators should note these windows as high-value charge opportunities.
On the notice front, AEMO has an active reclassification notice for the Mudgeeraba–Terranora No.757 and No.758 110 kV lines in QLD1, which were temporarily reclassified as credible contingency events due to lightning activity at 18:53 AEST and subsequently cleared at 19:59 AEST. Separately, AEMO issued a large volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews under NER Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 18:00–21:45 AEST; the 21:25 AEST interval has since been confirmed with prices unchanged, while intervals from 20:30 AEST onwards remain under active review. Traders should treat settled prices for those intervals as potentially subject to revision until AEMO issues confirmations.