regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $84.61/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 7,677 MW and rising as the morning ramp continues. Reviewing the 24-hour price profile, the market moved through a clear daily cycle: overnight lows bottomed near $0.07–$2.54/MWh between midnight and 03:30 AEST, before climbing sharply through the morning peak to an intraday high of $99.04/MWh around 07:55 AEST, then easing through the middle of the day into the $53–$67/MWh range before re-firming into the current session. The pattern is consistent with typical autumn demand, where solar output fades in the late afternoon and evening demand builds again.
The generation mix at the most recent trading interval is dominated by black coal at 5,172.69 MW, with solar contributing 111.96 MW and wind 56.70 MW. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all recording zero output at this interval. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.16%, reflecting the post-sunset collapse of solar and the low wind contribution — a marked contrast to the morning session peak of approximately 15.4% renewable penetration recorded around 09:00–09:30 AEST when rooftop and utility solar were generating strongly. Carbon intensity is 0.8522 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of today's range; intensity was as low as 0.7343 tCO2/MWh during the solar-heavy mid-morning period.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices of $84.79/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $76.98/MWh at 07:30 AEST, suggesting a modest easing from the current level as demand stabilises in the early morning hours before the next workday ramp. The step-down to the high-$70s aligns with overnight demand softening, with load windows indicating near-zero and occasionally negative prices expected between 09:00 and 12:30 AEST (UTC 23:00–02:30) as overnight baseload supply exceeds suppressed demand — consistent with what was observed in the equivalent period in today's price history.
Traders should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices covering intervals from approximately 18:00 through to 21:30 AEST under Clause 3.9.2B Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews. The 21:25 AEST interval has been confirmed with prices unchanged, but intervals from 18:00 through to 21:30 AEST remain subject to review and have not yet been confirmed. These notices do not affect the current trading interval but represent retrospective price uncertainty for positions held across the evening session. A separate contingency reclassification covering the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines in QLD1 due to lightning activity was raised and subsequently cancelled earlier today, with no constraint sets invoked and no direct NSW price impact recorded.