NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are diverging sharply at 06:25 AEST, with Tasmania the most expensive region at $88.14/MWh, NSW at $84.61/MWh, and Queensland at $79.98/MWh. Victoria sits at just $8.95/MWh — the standout outlier — driven by 1,059 MW of wind output against moderate demand of 4,946 MW, with the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector exporting 1,005 MW northward at its export limit. That interconnector is binding, as is NSW1-QLD1 which is flowing 383 MW south into NSW at its import limit, indicating transmission constraints are actively shaping the price spread across the eastern seaboard. South Australia clears at $21.99/MWh with wind supplying 692 MW of its 1,367 MW load and a carbon intensity of just 0.053 tCO2/MWh — the lowest on the mainland by a wide margin. WA sits at $96.65/MWh on data from the prior trading day.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 36.6% against a grid stress score of 63.2, reflecting the interconnector binding conditions and the concentration of low-price renewable output in Victoria and SA rather than in the higher-demand regions of NSW and Queensland. NSW renewable penetration is just 3.16% at this interval, with 5,173 MW of black coal meeting the bulk of its 7,677 MW demand and carbon intensity at 0.852 tCO2/MWh. Queensland mirrors this at 0.857 tCO2/MWh with black coal supplying 2,400 MW and renewables covering only 2.61% of load. Tasmania runs at 100% renewable penetration via 239 MW of hydro and 44 MW of wind, though its price of $88.14/MWh reflects the Basslink interconnector flowing 125 MW into Victoria rather than north toward higher-priced regions.

The significant market notice activity warrants attention: AEMO reviewed prices across more than 20 consecutive five-minute intervals from approximately 17:45 to 21:45 AEST under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), with reviews for intervals from 20:25 onward still active as of this briefing. The 21:25 interval has been confirmed unchanged, but intervals from 20:25 through to 21:45 AEST remain subject to review. Traders with positions in this window should treat current settlement figures as preliminary. Separately, a lightning-driven contingency reclassification on the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines in QLD1 was raised and subsequently cancelled around 19:00–20:00 AEST; no constraint sets were invoked and no residual operational impact is indicated.

With overnight temperatures across all regions between 11.8°C (NSW) and 19.4°C (SA), solar potential is zero across the NEM and heating demand is modest. As morning load ramps through 07:00–09:00 AEST, watch the VIC1-NSW1 flow ceiling — any reduction in Victorian wind output could tighten NSW supply and push prices higher. The price stability score of 38.5 and elevated grid stress at 63.2 point to continued volatility risk through the morning peak, particularly in NSW and Queensland where thermal plant is carrying