Load Advisor: Thursday 23 April 2026
Predispatch forecasts show prices collapsing NEM-wide from the current window into deep overnight territory, with the most compelling opportunity running from roughly 8:00 PM AEST tonight through to 4:00 AM AEST Friday morning. NSW currently sits at $84.61/MWh and QLD at $79.98/MWh, but both regions will see prices drop to sub-$5/MWh — and in many intervals go negative — from 8:30 PM AEST onward. VIC is already the cheapest region at $8.95/MWh and will slide into deeply negative territory from 8:30 PM, with predispatch showing prices as low as -$50/MWh in the 1:30–3:30 AM AEST window. SA mirrors VIC closely, with prices forecast to reach -$45/MWh or lower between midnight and 4:00 AM AEST, representing savings well in excess of 1,000% against current spot. QLD will see recurring negative intervals from 10:30 PM through 4:30 AM, with floors around -$25/MWh to -$35/MWh in the 1:00–3:30 AM AEST block. TAS is the outlier — current price is $88.14/MWh and predispatch holds it above $65/MWh through the overnight period with only modest dips to the low-$40s in isolated intervals; TAS flexible loads have limited opportunity to exploit tonight's NEM-wide trough.
The single best load-shifting window NEM-wide is **midnight to 4:00 AM AEST** across NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD. Within that block, **1:30 AM to 3:30 AM AEST** is the optimal concentration point: VIC and SA are forecast at -$19 to -$50/MWh across multiple intervals, NSW drops to near-zero or negative in most half-hours, and QLD sustains -$25/MWh floors. Operators with interruptible industrial load, battery charging schedules, or deferrable HVAC should target this window for maximum exposure. The morning ramp will begin from around 6:30 AM AEST when all regions step back above $10–20/MWh, with NSW and QLD pushing toward $20/MWh and SA returning to ~$9–17/MWh by 4:30 PM AEST.
Avoid scheduling additional demand into the 6:30–8:30 AM AEST window tomorrow morning, when prices across NSW, QLD, and SA are forecast to rebound sharply as overnight generation surpluses clear and morning demand increases. TAS participants should note that the Bass Link-connected price signals do not follow the mainland surplus pattern tonight — TAS flexible load operators should assess their own dispatch position independently rather than assuming alignment with the mainland opportunity.