commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $8.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,001 MW, a sharp contrast to the sub-zero and near-zero prices that prevailed across a lengthy mid-afternoon to early-evening window — prices ran at or below $0/MWh from roughly 14:20 through to 19:30 AEST, when demand bottomed in the 3,970–4,110 MW range. The day's price-demand relationship has been pronounced: the morning ramp from 3,500 MW at 02:30 AEST pushed prices from $1.67/MWh to a sustained $82–$100/MWh band between 07:00 and 09:00 AEST as demand peaked at 6,330 MW. That peak-hour sensitivity — roughly $15–20/MWh of price uplift per 300–400 MW of demand increment through the 5,500–6,300 MW range — reflects the tightness of available dispatchable capacity once demand cleared 5,500 MW.

Demand is now climbing again from its post-sunset trough, having risen from 4,620 MW at 06:00 AEST to 5,002 MW at 06:30 AEST. The generation mix at this interval is wind at 1,059 MW, brown coal at 1,450 MW, gas OCGT at 109 MW, and negligible hydro and solar output, with no CCGT online. Carbon intensity is 0.7027 tCO2/MWh and renewables sit at 40.45% of the mix. Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are centred around $37–38/MWh, which aligns with a demand level well below this morning's 6,000+ MW peak — consistent with a Friday pattern where business activity is moderate and the morning ramp is expected to be less severe than a mid-week equivalent.

The evening demand ramp is the key price risk for today. If demand tracks toward 5,500–5,800 MW in the 08:00–10:00 AEST window (which the prior-day pattern suggests is possible on a cool 14°C morning with a heating demand index of 3.8), prices could move into the $65–$100/MWh range as dispatchable plant is called upon in order. The AEMO market notices flagging prices subject to review for the 19:00–21:30 AEST intervals from the prior trading period are a reminder that demand-supply conditions during the evening ramp attracted scrutiny under the Manifestly Incorrect Inputs provisions — the 21:25 AEST interval was subsequently confirmed unchanged, but the 21:30–21:45 AEST intervals remain under review and settlement outcomes there are not yet finalised.

Demand-side managers and flexible load operators have a clear signal from the forward price shape: the 07:30–10:30 AEST window carries the highest price exposure for today based on the demand trajectory, while the overnight and early-afternoon periods continue to offer sub-$10/MWh or negative pricing if load can be shifted. The load window data shows forecast prices turning negative again from approximately 08:30 AEST (00:30 UTC) through to the 10:00–11:00 AEST window, deepening to -$13 to -$50/MWh range, suggesting