commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania sits at 1,046.82 MW and $88.14/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with price holding at the $88.14/MWh reference level that has anchored the market for the bulk of the past 24 hours. Today's demand profile traces a textbook autumn pattern: a morning ramp from a pre-dawn trough near 950 MW up through the day's peak of approximately 1,195 MW between 18:00–19:00 AEST, followed by a steady retreat through the afternoon and into the current late-evening period. The price response to that demand peak was muted — spot only briefly printed above $88.18/MWh, touching $96.22/MWh during the 17:20–19:20 AEST window when demand was running above 1,150 MW, before retreating as load eased. Below roughly 1,100 MW, the market consistently reverts to the $88.14–$88.18/MWh band, indicating that marginal dispatch costs are tightly bounded at current demand levels.

The overnight trough between 01:00 and 05:00 AEST saw demand compress to 950–985 MW, and spot prices during that window were less stable — ranging from $66/MWh to over $100/MWh across individual intervals — reflecting the sensitivity of Tasmania's smaller market to dispatch stack shifts when hydro scheduling adjusts. Generation at the current interval is 336.44 MW hydro and 42.73 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, consistent with the grid running at 100% renewable penetration across the entire recorded period. The gap between local generation (approximately 379 MW) and total demand (1,047 MW) indicates a substantial import flow across Basslink, which makes TAS1 pricing susceptible to Victorian market conditions at this demand level.

Forward price signals point lower through the overnight period into early Friday morning. Forecast RRP for the 07:00 AEST interval sits at $88.14/MWh, but load window pricing for intervals from 08:30 AEST onwards drops into the $65–$72/MWh range, with some intervals printing below $60/MWh in the 11:30–13:00 AEST window (08:30–09:00 UTC). That overnight demand trough — typically falling below 980 MW on a Friday — is where the market expects to clear well below the current $88/MWh anchor. The Friday effect on commercial and industrial load will shape how deep that trough runs; a shallower-than-usual demand reduction sustains the current price band, while demand dropping toward the 930–950 MW range seen in mid-afternoon periods this week is likely to pull spot below $75/MWh. Note that numerous intervals across the 19:00–21:45 AEST window remain subject to AEMO review under Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs; any price revisions to those intervals will not affect forward dispatch but are relevant to settlement exposure for positions held during that period.