commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $22.25/MWh at 06:00 AEST with demand at 1,376 MW, a level that has risen steadily from the overnight trough of around 484 MW reached at approximately 13:15 AEST. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours is pronounced: as demand climbed through the morning ramp from roughly 756 MW at 15:00 AEST to a daily peak of 1,759 MW at 18:35 AEST, prices moved in lockstep, sustaining above $80/MWh through the 17:00–19:00 AEST window and briefly touching $134.64/MWh at 07:05 AEST. The current $22.25/MWh price reflects demand that has pulled back from that peak and is now tracking through a softer overnight-to-morning transition zone, with wind supplying 737 MW and gas CCGT contributing 84 MW against nil solar output at this hour.

The most recent AEMO forecast for the 07:00 AEST half-hour period targets $27.40/MWh, revised down from earlier forecasts of $34–$39/MWh issued through the evening, indicating the market anticipates contained pricing as demand remains at moderate levels. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $21.08/MWh, reinforcing the expectation of a subdued near-term price environment before the morning ramp. Based on today's price history, the critical demand threshold where prices accelerate sits around 1,550–1,600 MW — above that level this morning, prices were consistently above $60/MWh, while below it they compressed sharply. Current demand at 1,376 MW places SA comfortably beneath that threshold for now.

Traders should watch the morning demand ramp closely. Today being a Friday in late April, residential and commercial load typically builds through 07:00–09:30 AEST (AEST equivalent of the 21:00–23:30 UTC settlement window), which is precisely the period when prices surged above $80/MWh in today's data. The load window forecasts signal that negative pricing is expected to resume from approximately 08:00 AEST onwards as overnight demand continues to decline before the business day ramp commences — prices as low as -$51.57/MWh appear in the 09:30–10:00 AEST range across multiple forecast runs, consistent with wind generation holding firm into low-demand overnight conditions. The notable volume of AEMO market notices flagging intervals from 06:25–07:05 AEST as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs warrants attention; if any of those high-price intervals from the evening peak are subsequently revised, settlement exposure for those periods changes accordingly.