Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — entirely hydro and wind — and has maintained that position across every interval in today's dataset. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.05 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 89.8%, driven by 737 MW of wind and only 84 MW of gas CCGT filling the balance. At the other end, Queensland sits at 0.86 tCO2/MWh with just 2.6% renewables — 2,473 MW of black coal dominates and solar output is negligible at 0.2 MW at this hour (06:30 AEST). NSW is at 0.83 tCO2/MWh with 5.2% renewables; 5,508 MW of black coal accounts for the bulk of its 5,806 MW dispatch, with wind and solar contributing only 177 MW combined. Victoria is at 0.70 tCO2/MWh with 40.5% renewables — 1,059 MW of wind is running alongside 1,450 MW of brown coal and 109 MW of gas OCGT.

The generation mix driving these figures reflects April's post-summer solar profile. Across NSW and Queensland, rooftop and utility solar typically ramps through 08:00–13:00 AEST, which has historically pushed renewable penetration into the mid-teens for NSW and low-to-mid single digits for QLD in recent intervals — modest reductions but not transformative. SA's pattern in today's data shows its lowest intensity readings clustered around 09:00–12:00 AEST (as low as 0.03 tCO2/MWh at the 09:00 interval) when wind and solar coincide; intensity then edges back toward 0.05–0.10 tCO2/MWh through the afternoon. Victoria's wind output has been sustaining the 40%+ renewable share through the evening, and that is expected to hold while the current wind resource continues.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the actionable windows today are clear by region. SA offers the strongest signal: intensity has been below 0.05 tCO2/MWh for extended stretches and is likely to remain sub-0.10 tCO2/MWh through the morning solar peak, with the 09:00–13:00 AEST window the most favourable based on today's pattern. Tasmania offers a flat zero-intensity profile around the clock — no timing strategy required. Victoria's lowest-intensity window tracked to the 18:00–20:00 AEST range at 0.65–0.68 tCO2/MWh when wind output was strongest; watch wind forecasts for whether that holds into today's evening. NSW and Queensland present no low-intensity windows under current conditions — coal dispatch is flat and solar uplift is insufficient to materially shift the intensity curve. Operators scheduling interruptible or flexible loads should prioritise SA and Tasmania where grid carbon content is structurally lower at all hours today.