regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $73.48/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,072 MW. Tracing the past 24 hours, prices moved through a pronounced cycle: an overnight trough dominated by sustained negative prices — reaching as low as -$3.55/MWh between roughly 09:00–13:00 AEST — before climbing sharply into the morning peak, where prices touched $100.50/MWh around 17:25–17:30 AEST. Prices have since moderated into the low-to-mid $70s/MWh range through the current interval, consistent with post-peak demand easing from a morning high of around 6,194 MW back toward 5,072 MW.

The current generation mix is led by brown coal at 2,165 MW, followed by wind at 591 MW, gas (OCGT) at 110 MW, and hydro at a minimal 0.52 MW. Solar sits at zero output, consistent with the pre-dawn interval. Renewables are contributing 20.63% of the generation mix at this reading. Carbon intensity sits at 0.9463 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight period, when renewables held a higher share (peaking at around 42% at 08:30 AEST yesterday) and intensity dipped below 0.66 tCO2/MWh. The intensity trajectory today has followed demand closely: low overnight, spiking toward 1.09 tCO2/MWh during the mid-afternoon when wind output was at its lightest relative to thermal dispatch, before easing back as wind recovered to the current 591 MW.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hours point to prices in the $83.69–$81.61/MWh range, suggesting a modest upward move from the current level as morning demand builds further. The most recent forecast prints (from the 06:01 AEST run) have been trending toward the mid-$80s, with one outlier run earlier in the evening touching $100.50/MWh — now looking like an overestimate. Load window data confirms that the next low-price opportunity arrives from approximately 08:30 AEST onward (UTC 22:30), when forecast prices drop toward zero and negative territory through the overnight window, with the deepest negatives — some prints at -$24.67/MWh — clustering between roughly 09:00 and 13:30 AEST. Flexible loads and battery operators should note this window as the primary charge/shift opportunity for Thursday.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from 22 April from 08:00 AEST through to today's early morning intervals including 04:45, 05:25, and 06:05 AEST. Several of these reviews have since resolved with prices confirmed unchanged (notably the 11:15, 12:30, 17:30, and 18:50 AEST intervals from Wednesday). However, a significant number of notices covering today's overnight intervals remain active and unresolved. Traders holding positions in any of the flagged intervals should treat published prices as provisional pending AEMO's final determination. The volume and frequency of these notices — spanning roughly 18 hours of trading — is